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Shale Gasoline: Penn State Researchers Rediscover Round Reasoning

Visitor “are you fracking kidding me?” by way of David Middleton

Researchers unearth cost-effective way for locating shale gasoline
New way approximates to be had gasoline in untapped spaces of Marcellus Shale area the use of nicely manufacturing information

David Kubarek
September 03, 2019

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — A brand new way for exploring herbal gasoline within the Marcellus Shale, evolved by way of Penn State researchers, presentations attainable excessive yield spaces will also be discovered extra simply and with decrease prices.

Historically, herbal gasoline scorching spots are decided the use of a mixture of present nicely manufacturing information and more than a few geological assessments. The researchers, in paintings revealed within the SPE Reservoir Analysis & Engineering magazine, detailed one way for approximating to be had gasoline in untapped spaces the use of nicely manufacturing information taken from greater than five,600 present wells.

Researchers used most effective wells with greater than two years of manufacturing logs and assigned a decline curve research — the volume of manufacturing loss through the years — for each and every nicely. They then carried out those decline curves over all of the area of the Marcellus Shale. That allowed researchers to forecast the volume of gasoline that might be generated through the years if a brand new nicely have been created. Researchers then validated their findings the use of geological maps, which have been produced from core samples.

“Moderately than having a look at those geological proxies for manufacturing we’re simply having a look at manufacturing itself,” stated Eugene Morgan, assistant professor of petroleum and herbal gasoline engineering within the Penn State School of Earth and Mineral Sciences. “By way of having a look at simply manufacturing and mapping we see that it concurs in reality nicely with those geological variables associated with manufacturing, which validates our way. By way of having a look at manufacturing on my own you’re without delay focused on the ideas you’re after.”

Morgan stated the process held robust right through validation, appearing that it used to be nearly as wonderful at forecasting herbal gasoline sources as strategies that come with expensive geological information sampling.

[…]

Penn State College

This map accompanied the item and comprises the true caption:

Penn State researchers detail a method for approximating available gas in untapped areas using well production data taken from more than 5,600 existing wells
“Penn State researchers element one way for approximating to be had gasoline in untapped spaces the use of nicely manufacturing information taken from greater than five,600 present wells within the Marcellus Shale area. That might result in more cost effective location of herbal gasoline with much less disturbance at the area’s geology. IMAGE: PENN STATE”

That might result in more cost effective location of herbal gasoline with much less disturbance at the area’s geology.

Penn State

“Much less disturbance at the area’s geology”???

The aim of drilling and frac’ing gasoline wells is to disturb the area’s geology. That’s the way you get the gasoline to return out of the rocks and pass into pipelines In the event you don’t disturb the geology, you don’t produce oil or gasoline… You’ll be able to’t even drill and bring a groundwater nicely with out stressful the geology.

In equity to the Penn State researchers, the clicking liberate used to be obviously written by way of any person who used to be utterly clueless.

The SPE paper is pay-walled, however obviously now not written by way of any person who used to be utterly clueless.

Combining Decline-Curve Research and Geostatistics To Forecast Gasoline Manufacturing within the Marcellus Shale

Zhenke Xi (Pennsylvania State College) | Eugene Morgan (Pennsylvania State College)

To estimate the manufacturing attainable at a brand new, potential box web site by way of simulation or subject matter steadiness, one wishes to assemble more than a few sorts of expensive box information and make assumptions in regards to the nature of the formation at that web site. Decline-curve research (DCA) would now not be acceptable on this situation, as a result of generating wells want to pre-exist within the goal box. The target of our paintings used to be to make first-order forecasts of manufacturing charges at potential, undrilled websites the use of most effective manufacturing information from present wells in all of the play. That is achieved during the co-Kriging of decline-curve parameter values, the place the parameter values are bought at each and every present nicely by way of becoming a suitable decline type to the manufacturing historical past. Co-Kriging provides the most efficient linear independent prediction of parameter values at undrilled places, and in addition estimates uncertainty in the ones predictions. Thus, we bought manufacturing forecasts at P10, P50, and P90, and we calculated the estimated final restoration (EUR) at those self same ranges around the spatial area of the play.

[…]

SPE Reservoir Analysis & Engineering magazine

That is all nicely and excellent. In useful resource performs, just like the Marcellus, decline-curve research (DCA), all on its own, can lovely nicely forecast the estimated final restoration (EUR). The manufacturing information can be utilized to forecast manufacturing… Now not a brand new thought and principally round reasoning. Moreover, the authors obviously state that that is for”first-order forecasts of manufacturing charges.” It’s a reconnaissance software. By way of interpolating DCA’s play-wide, you’ll establish spaces that could be extra potential than others, in useful resource performs. This would possibly assist high-grade spaces on which to center of attention extra detailed geological analyses; even supposing maximum geologists will need to paintings the schist out of all of the play. You don’t to find issues that everybody else ignored the use of this type of method.

On the other hand, this isn’t “a brand new way for exploring herbal gasoline within the Marcellus Shale”… It’s now not one way of exploring for anything else. Nor does it display that “attainable excessive yield spaces will also be discovered extra simply and with decrease prices.” You continue to have to pick out a drilling location. And the one means you’ll do that is to interpret the geological information from within reach wells and incorporate any geophysical information which are to be had. The drillers need to have a goal (x,y and intensity).

One of the crucial issues of science communique is that press releases are frequently far-removed from the medical newsletter after which misreported by way of the media.

The brand new way of exploration comes on the proper time. Call for for herbal gasoline in the US is rising, however costs were depressed as a result of provide from the shale patch is rising quicker than call for. In consequence, in April this yr, the benchmark herbal gasoline contract on the Waha Hub slipped into destructive territory, at  -$nine in line with million British thermal devices. Only a month later, the benchmark slipped into destructive territory as soon as once more, at -$four.28 in line with mmBtu. The typical value for the primary 5 months of the yr used to be $zero.92 in line with mmBtu.

On the finish of August, herbal gasoline used to be buying and selling above US$2 in line with mmBtu, however analysts warned that quickly they may slip not up to this as summer season ends and temperatures fall, undermining call for, which spiked right through the warmth waves. Now, there will probably be a lull in call for ahead of it choices up right through the wintry weather.

Regardless of the decrease costs, U.S. herbal gasoline manufacturing persisted to extend in August and set a brand new day-to-day manufacturing document of 92.1 billion cubic toes in line with day on August five, the EIA stated, bringing up information from OPIS PointLogic Power. Between Would possibly and August, gasoline manufacturing rose by way of 2.five p.c, principally pushed by way of the Northeast.

On this value and provide context, the brand new exploration way, if carried out on a bigger scale, can have implications for U.S. LNG exports as nicely.

Oil Worth Dot Com

“The brand new way of exploration high-grading comes on the proper time” for what? With herbal gasoline costs automatically falling into destructive territory and averaging not up to $1/mmBtu, not anything could make drilling herbal gasoline wells financial, excluding NGL’s…

Self belief on this rapid tempo of manufacturing expansion is well-founded; reported preliminary manufacturing charges and different elements recommend that the break-even gasoline value for lots of dry Marcellus manufacturers is most effective about $2.50/MMBTU, and that—because of supplemental returns on herbal gasoline liquids (NGLs) and, in some circumstances, condensates—the break-even gasoline value for lots of rainy Marcellus/Utica manufacturers is even decrease: about $2/MMBTU. In some circumstances the wonderful herbal gasoline breakeven value will get all of the option to 0, with lucky manufacturers attaining breakeven returns from the sale of NGLs and condensates.

RBN Power

Manufacturing information is normally bought from distributors who specialise in aggregating manufacturing information. Neatly logs and different geological information also are normally bought from distributors. Those kinds of information aren’t dear, in particular compared to seismic surveys. And all of those prices are insignificant in comparison to the price of drilling and finishing the wells.

Even supposing this high-grading software works and is extensively hired, it might simply build up the quantity of herbal gasoline manufacturing, placing downward power on costs. Re-quoting the Oil Worth Dot Com article…

The brand new way of exploration comes on the proper time. Call for for herbal gasoline in the US is rising, however costs were depressed as a result of provide from the shale patch is rising quicker than call for.

Oil Worth Dot Com

A brand new software that will increase manufacturing and rarely impacts prices isn’t coming on the proper time, when herbal gasoline is starting from -$10/mmBtu to +$2/mmBtu.

Visitor “are you fracking kidding me?” by way of David Middleton

Researchers unearth cost-effective way for locating shale gasoline
New way approximates to be had gasoline in untapped spaces of Marcellus Shale area the use of nicely manufacturing information

David Kubarek
September 03, 2019

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — A brand new way for exploring herbal gasoline within the Marcellus Shale, evolved by way of Penn State researchers, presentations attainable excessive yield spaces will also be discovered extra simply and with decrease prices.

Historically, herbal gasoline scorching spots are decided the use of a mixture of present nicely manufacturing information and more than a few geological assessments. The researchers, in paintings revealed within the SPE Reservoir Analysis & Engineering magazine, detailed one way for approximating to be had gasoline in untapped spaces the use of nicely manufacturing information taken from greater than five,600 present wells.

Researchers used most effective wells with greater than two years of manufacturing logs and assigned a decline curve research — the volume of manufacturing loss through the years — for each and every nicely. They then carried out those decline curves over all of the area of the Marcellus Shale. That allowed researchers to forecast the volume of gasoline that might be generated through the years if a brand new nicely have been created. Researchers then validated their findings the use of geological maps, which have been produced from core samples.

“Moderately than having a look at those geological proxies for manufacturing we’re simply having a look at manufacturing itself,” stated Eugene Morgan, assistant professor of petroleum and herbal gasoline engineering within the Penn State School of Earth and Mineral Sciences. “By way of having a look at simply manufacturing and mapping we see that it concurs in reality nicely with those geological variables associated with manufacturing, which validates our way. By way of having a look at manufacturing on my own you’re without delay focused on the ideas you’re after.”

Morgan stated the process held robust right through validation, appearing that it used to be nearly as wonderful at forecasting herbal gasoline sources as strategies that come with expensive geological information sampling.

[…]

Penn State College

This map accompanied the item and comprises the true caption:

Penn State researchers detail a method for approximating available gas in untapped areas using well production data taken from more than 5,600 existing wells
“Penn State researchers element one way for approximating to be had gasoline in untapped spaces the use of nicely manufacturing information taken from greater than five,600 present wells within the Marcellus Shale area. That might result in more cost effective location of herbal gasoline with much less disturbance at the area’s geology. IMAGE: PENN STATE”

That might result in more cost effective location of herbal gasoline with much less disturbance at the area’s geology.

Penn State

“Much less disturbance at the area’s geology”???

The aim of drilling and frac’ing gasoline wells is to disturb the area’s geology. That’s the way you get the gasoline to return out of the rocks and pass into pipelines In the event you don’t disturb the geology, you don’t produce oil or gasoline… You’ll be able to’t even drill and bring a groundwater nicely with out stressful the geology.

In equity to the Penn State researchers, the clicking liberate used to be obviously written by way of any person who used to be utterly clueless.

The SPE paper is pay-walled, however obviously now not written by way of any person who used to be utterly clueless.

Combining Decline-Curve Research and Geostatistics To Forecast Gasoline Manufacturing within the Marcellus Shale

Zhenke Xi (Pennsylvania State College) | Eugene Morgan (Pennsylvania State College)

To estimate the manufacturing attainable at a brand new, potential box web site by way of simulation or subject matter steadiness, one wishes to assemble more than a few sorts of expensive box information and make assumptions in regards to the nature of the formation at that web site. Decline-curve research (DCA) would now not be acceptable on this situation, as a result of generating wells want to pre-exist within the goal box. The target of our paintings used to be to make first-order forecasts of manufacturing charges at potential, undrilled websites the use of most effective manufacturing information from present wells in all of the play. That is achieved during the co-Kriging of decline-curve parameter values, the place the parameter values are bought at each and every present nicely by way of becoming a suitable decline type to the manufacturing historical past. Co-Kriging provides the most efficient linear independent prediction of parameter values at undrilled places, and in addition estimates uncertainty in the ones predictions. Thus, we bought manufacturing forecasts at P10, P50, and P90, and we calculated the estimated final restoration (EUR) at those self same ranges around the spatial area of the play.

[…]

SPE Reservoir Analysis & Engineering magazine

That is all nicely and excellent. In useful resource performs, just like the Marcellus, decline-curve research (DCA), all on its own, can lovely nicely forecast the estimated final restoration (EUR). The manufacturing information can be utilized to forecast manufacturing… Now not a brand new thought and principally round reasoning. Moreover, the authors obviously state that that is for”first-order forecasts of manufacturing charges.” It’s a reconnaissance software. By way of interpolating DCA’s play-wide, you’ll establish spaces that could be extra potential than others, in useful resource performs. This would possibly assist high-grade spaces on which to center of attention extra detailed geological analyses; even supposing maximum geologists will need to paintings the schist out of all of the play. You don’t to find issues that everybody else ignored the use of this type of method.

On the other hand, this isn’t “a brand new way for exploring herbal gasoline within the Marcellus Shale”… It’s now not one way of exploring for anything else. Nor does it display that “attainable excessive yield spaces will also be discovered extra simply and with decrease prices.” You continue to have to pick out a drilling location. And the one means you’ll do that is to interpret the geological information from within reach wells and incorporate any geophysical information which are to be had. The drillers need to have a goal (x,y and intensity).

One of the crucial issues of science communique is that press releases are frequently far-removed from the medical newsletter after which misreported by way of the media.

The brand new way of exploration comes on the proper time. Call for for herbal gasoline in the US is rising, however costs were depressed as a result of provide from the shale patch is rising quicker than call for. In consequence, in April this yr, the benchmark herbal gasoline contract on the Waha Hub slipped into destructive territory, at  -$nine in line with million British thermal devices. Only a month later, the benchmark slipped into destructive territory as soon as once more, at -$four.28 in line with mmBtu. The typical value for the primary 5 months of the yr used to be $zero.92 in line with mmBtu.

On the finish of August, herbal gasoline used to be buying and selling above US$2 in line with mmBtu, however analysts warned that quickly they may slip not up to this as summer season ends and temperatures fall, undermining call for, which spiked right through the warmth waves. Now, there will probably be a lull in call for ahead of it choices up right through the wintry weather.

Regardless of the decrease costs, U.S. herbal gasoline manufacturing persisted to extend in August and set a brand new day-to-day manufacturing document of 92.1 billion cubic toes in line with day on August five, the EIA stated, bringing up information from OPIS PointLogic Power. Between Would possibly and August, gasoline manufacturing rose by way of 2.five p.c, principally pushed by way of the Northeast.

On this value and provide context, the brand new exploration way, if carried out on a bigger scale, can have implications for U.S. LNG exports as nicely.

Oil Worth Dot Com

“The brand new way of exploration high-grading comes on the proper time” for what? With herbal gasoline costs automatically falling into destructive territory and averaging not up to $1/mmBtu, not anything could make drilling herbal gasoline wells financial, excluding NGL’s…

Self belief on this rapid tempo of manufacturing expansion is well-founded; reported preliminary manufacturing charges and different elements recommend that the break-even gasoline value for lots of dry Marcellus manufacturers is most effective about $2.50/MMBTU, and that—because of supplemental returns on herbal gasoline liquids (NGLs) and, in some circumstances, condensates—the break-even gasoline value for lots of rainy Marcellus/Utica manufacturers is even decrease: about $2/MMBTU. In some circumstances the wonderful herbal gasoline breakeven value will get all of the option to 0, with lucky manufacturers attaining breakeven returns from the sale of NGLs and condensates.

RBN Power

Manufacturing information is normally bought from distributors who specialise in aggregating manufacturing information. Neatly logs and different geological information also are normally bought from distributors. Those kinds of information aren’t dear, in particular compared to seismic surveys. And all of those prices are insignificant in comparison to the price of drilling and finishing the wells.

Even supposing this high-grading software works and is extensively hired, it might simply build up the quantity of herbal gasoline manufacturing, placing downward power on costs. Re-quoting the Oil Worth Dot Com article…

The brand new way of exploration comes on the proper time. Call for for herbal gasoline in the US is rising, however costs were depressed as a result of provide from the shale patch is rising quicker than call for.

Oil Worth Dot Com

A brand new software that will increase manufacturing and rarely impacts prices isn’t coming on the proper time, when herbal gasoline is starting from -$10/mmBtu to +$2/mmBtu.

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