Home / Weather / Pathway 2045—Edison’s Roadmap to Power Hell (1)

Pathway 2045—Edison’s Roadmap to Power Hell (1)

Visitor publish by means of Rud Istvan,

California WUWT reader Cal B alerted Charles the Moderator to a brand new report simply revealed by means of Edison Global, the retaining corporate guardian for SoCal Edison, the biggest electrical application for southern California. Cal B requested if WUWT posters may love to take it on? In his same old fascinating style, CtM were given me (after some preliminary reluctance) to volunteer these days over a lunch overlooking South Florida’s Intercoastal Waterway. The important thing was once his good technique to my ‘too large a topic’ objection—damage it into portions! So that is the primary of six portions.

My causes for agreeing have been a number of.

First, many of the technical issue problems buried in Pathway 2045 I prior to now coated, albeit at posts over at Judith Curry’s Local weather And so on and/or in my e-book Blowing Smoke. So there was once no longer a number of new analysis required.

2nd, it’s shocking that an electrical application may foist such technical and financial nonsense onto its California consumers. One presumes it was once pressured by means of coming California necessities imposed by means of Newsom worse than the loopy 2030 necessities to which SoCalEd already crazily spoke back in 2017.

3rd, as WUWT matures and adjustments from simply the local weather science to the local weather politics, it’s attracting new readers that will not be aware of gone technical analyses. This is a chance to “package deal’” the large ‘Inexperienced New Deal’ power truth image in combination once more.

This primary section supplies a ‘30000 foot’ assessment of the entire thing. Pathway 2045 to 0 Internet Carbon California accommodates 5 separate ‘answer’ portions:

  • 1. Decarbonize electrical energy
  • 2. Electrify transportation
  • three. Electrify constructions
  • four. Use low carbon fuels
  • five. Sink final carbon

Decarbonizing electrical energy both method renewables or nuclear. SoCalEd does NOT suggest nuclear. They suggest renewables. That raises ‘simplest’ 3 small issues. Renewables don’t seem to be economically viable with out large subsidies. Renewables are intermittent, requiring further backup capability for when the wind does no longer blow or the solar does no longer shine. Renewables supply no grid inertia. Renewables are subsequently a confirmed an financial crisis, as California’s top electrical energy charges already end up. However SoCalEd doesn’t care—their revenues will upward thrust bigly and their regulated application returns are ‘fee assured’.

Electrifying transportation (Tesla) additionally runs into 3 issues. First, the desired grid capability increment is gigantic. 2nd, automobiles like paintings pickups or magnificence eight tractors can’t be electrified, in spite of Tesla’s imaginary guarantees on the contrary—all battery, no shipment capability. 3rd, there are severe lithium and cobalt useful resource constraints.

Electrifying constructions past what exists these days (some HVAC, lights) has two issues. Present constructions or their subsystems would necessarily need to be torn down/out and changed, however NOT at SoCalEd value. Possibly house owners will flinch at their dear wishful pondering. 2nd, puts but extra want for Capex to make bigger grid capability past automobile electrification, since maximum business constructions do NOT have sufficient floor publicity for self sustained sun or wind.

The use of low carbon fuels will have to imply nuclear. SoCalEd method greater than herbal gasoline fired CCGT instead of coal, a transition already taking place for financial causes. They imply biofuels and hydrogen (e.g. gas cells), for which they’ve it sounds as if studied neither the carbon chemistry nor the power thermodynamics.

Sinking final carbon method both forestry or ocean iron fertilization (geoengineering). SoCalEd’s northern California electrical application spouse PGE has long past into chapter 11 for inflicting woodland fires that destroyed carbon sinks. And the fires round LA this autumn counsel SoCalEd isn’t a lot better at retaining them. Phase 6 will speak about whether or not the plan may well be for SoCalEd ratepayers to pay additional for carbon credit to anyplace to plant bushes or fertilize barren oceans.

In sum, that is SoCalEd’s model of the Inexperienced New Deal. Pigs can not fly regardless of how a lot lipstick is placed on them. The inventory is a sturdy brief. California is a sturdy brief. There are 3 local weather reaction crash take a look at dummies on the earth these days: Australia, UK, and California. This new place paper by means of the biggest California electrical application leapfrogs California into first crash dummy position.

Visitor publish by means of Rud Istvan,

California WUWT reader Cal B alerted Charles the Moderator to a brand new report simply revealed by means of Edison Global, the retaining corporate guardian for SoCal Edison, the biggest electrical application for southern California. Cal B requested if WUWT posters may love to take it on? In his same old fascinating style, CtM were given me (after some preliminary reluctance) to volunteer these days over a lunch overlooking South Florida’s Intercoastal Waterway. The important thing was once his good technique to my ‘too large a topic’ objection—damage it into portions! So that is the primary of six portions.

My causes for agreeing have been a number of.

First, many of the technical issue problems buried in Pathway 2045 I prior to now coated, albeit at posts over at Judith Curry’s Local weather And so on and/or in my e-book Blowing Smoke. So there was once no longer a number of new analysis required.

2nd, it’s shocking that an electrical application may foist such technical and financial nonsense onto its California consumers. One presumes it was once pressured by means of coming California necessities imposed by means of Newsom worse than the loopy 2030 necessities to which SoCalEd already crazily spoke back in 2017.

3rd, as WUWT matures and adjustments from simply the local weather science to the local weather politics, it’s attracting new readers that will not be aware of gone technical analyses. This is a chance to “package deal’” the large ‘Inexperienced New Deal’ power truth image in combination once more.

This primary section supplies a ‘30000 foot’ assessment of the entire thing. Pathway 2045 to 0 Internet Carbon California accommodates 5 separate ‘answer’ portions:

  • 1. Decarbonize electrical energy
  • 2. Electrify transportation
  • three. Electrify constructions
  • four. Use low carbon fuels
  • five. Sink final carbon

Decarbonizing electrical energy both method renewables or nuclear. SoCalEd does NOT suggest nuclear. They suggest renewables. That raises ‘simplest’ 3 small issues. Renewables don’t seem to be economically viable with out large subsidies. Renewables are intermittent, requiring further backup capability for when the wind does no longer blow or the solar does no longer shine. Renewables supply no grid inertia. Renewables are subsequently a confirmed an financial crisis, as California’s top electrical energy charges already end up. However SoCalEd doesn’t care—their revenues will upward thrust bigly and their regulated application returns are ‘fee assured’.

Electrifying transportation (Tesla) additionally runs into 3 issues. First, the desired grid capability increment is gigantic. 2nd, automobiles like paintings pickups or magnificence eight tractors can’t be electrified, in spite of Tesla’s imaginary guarantees on the contrary—all battery, no shipment capability. 3rd, there are severe lithium and cobalt useful resource constraints.

Electrifying constructions past what exists these days (some HVAC, lights) has two issues. Present constructions or their subsystems would necessarily need to be torn down/out and changed, however NOT at SoCalEd value. Possibly house owners will flinch at their dear wishful pondering. 2nd, puts but extra want for Capex to make bigger grid capability past automobile electrification, since maximum business constructions do NOT have sufficient floor publicity for self sustained sun or wind.

The use of low carbon fuels will have to imply nuclear. SoCalEd method greater than herbal gasoline fired CCGT instead of coal, a transition already taking place for financial causes. They imply biofuels and hydrogen (e.g. gas cells), for which they’ve it sounds as if studied neither the carbon chemistry nor the power thermodynamics.

Sinking final carbon method both forestry or ocean iron fertilization (geoengineering). SoCalEd’s northern California electrical application spouse PGE has long past into chapter 11 for inflicting woodland fires that destroyed carbon sinks. And the fires round LA this autumn counsel SoCalEd isn’t a lot better at retaining them. Phase 6 will speak about whether or not the plan may well be for SoCalEd ratepayers to pay additional for carbon credit to anyplace to plant bushes or fertilize barren oceans.

In sum, that is SoCalEd’s model of the Inexperienced New Deal. Pigs can not fly regardless of how a lot lipstick is placed on them. The inventory is a sturdy brief. California is a sturdy brief. There are 3 local weather reaction crash take a look at dummies on the earth these days: Australia, UK, and California. This new place paper by means of the biggest California electrical application leapfrogs California into first crash dummy position.

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