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ClimateFeedback evaluate of PragerU video demanding situations excellent information on polar bears

From Polar Undergo Science

Posted on Would possibly 18, 2020 |

Fb has labelled a contemporary brief PragerU polar endure video as “false data” in line with a ClimateFeedback evaluate that includes statements through Andrew Derocher and Ian Stirling printed 18 Would possibly 2020.

The video, posted on Fb Five Would possibly 2020, could also be to be had right here and right here. Additionally right here at the PragerU web page.

I used to be approached the previous day through Nick Coltrain, a reporter for the Des Moines Check in and USA As of late, soliciting for a commentary concerning the accuracy of the PragerU video, which cites me as a supply for 2 in their 3 ‘inconvenient info.’

My feedback are underneath however I reminded Nick that what’s going on is a vintage struggle that occurs at all times in science: it items no evidence that I’m unsuitable or that the PragerU video is ‘false data’. Local weather Comments isn’t ‘factchecking’: it’s presenting its most well-liked facet of a disputed science factor.

Commentary despatched to Nick Coltrain:

Thank you for the chance to reply. I stand in the back of the accuracy of the video however want they’d cited my medical paper, my totally referenced new e-book, The Polar Undergo Disaster That By no means Came about, and/or The State of the Polar Undergo Record 2019, additionally totally referenced. [links provided to Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020]

I will be able to publish a complete reaction on my weblog however want to indicate the next.

In regards to the problem of the adjective ‘thriving’ used within the video, within the evaluate each Derocher and Stirling referred to Barents and Chukchi Sea polar bears as doing “OK”. I contend it is a gross misrepresentation of the broadcast literature on those bears. There were plenty of papers printed on Chukchi Sea bears documenting that frame situation and copy are higher now than within the 1980s and a contemporary paper at the frame situation of feminine Barents Sea bears mentioned:

“Swiftly, frame situation of feminine polar bears from the Barents Sea has higher after 2005, despite the fact that sea ice has retreated through ∼50% for the reason that past due 1990s within the space, and the duration of the ice-free season has higher through over 20 weeks between 1979 and 2013. Those adjustments also are accompanied through iciness sea ice retreat this is particularly pronounced within the Barents Sea in comparison to different Arctic spaces” [Lippold et al. 2019:988]

Biologically talking, for the reason that premise of the belief that polar endure populations will decline with diminished summer season sea ice is that bears will likely be in deficient situation and reproducing poorly, it’s logical to think that bears with excellent frame situation and reproducing smartly belong to thriving populations, without reference to the truth that the ocean ice of their area is way diminished.

As well as, Stirling additional mentioned that “…a pair [subpopulations] are doing OK, similar to Foxe Basin and Davis Directly, and one appears to be expanding (M’Clintock Channel).” It’s abnormal that Stirling fails to say Kane Basin, proven at the standing map supplied as additionally ‘most probably expanding’ (as documented in 2016 inhabitants survey file) and but mentions M’Clintock Channel bears appear to be expanding although the result of a long-awaited inhabitants survey, now lengthy past due, have no longer but been made public.

The polar endure information are contradictory: opposite to predictions, a number of polar endure subpopulations (a minimum of 4 of them) are certainly thriving in spite of a lot diminished summer season sea ice. I’ve selected to emphasis that excellent information, whilst Stirling and Derocher select to emphasise the information that appear to suit their predictions. It is a vintage struggle that occurs at all times in science however items no evidence that I’m unsuitable or that the PragerU video is inherently ‘false’.

Regards,

Susan, 18 Would possibly 2020

In brief, it’s certainly true that ‘Polar bears are thriving even the place sea ice is diminishing.’ See additionally my 2018 opinion piece at the Nationwide Geographic ‘ravenous’ polar endure video within the Monetary Put up right here. Local weather Comments reviewed that piece with statements through Steven Amstrup and Andrew Derocher, which I countered right here, right here, and right here.

Further feedback:

The evaluate states: “There is not any medical proof that all the polar endure inhabitants has been rising, opposite to what this video claims.” In 2007 the worldwide estimate utilized by the USGS of their research supporting the checklist of polar bears as ‘threatened’ underneath the ESA used to be 24,500 (Amstrup et al. 2007) and the reliable IUCN estimate in 2015 (with out the addition of a number of subpopulation estimates finished since then) used to be 26,000 (22,000-31,000)(Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015).

Do the mathematics: 24,500 bears in 2007 vs. 26,000 bears in 2015 is a rise of one,500 bears and point out that general inhabitants numbers have certainly grown through a small quantity. More moderen survey effects upload additional to that overall. I’ve identified this may occasionally smartly no longer be statistically vital building up however it’s under no circumstances the decline that used to be predicted to happen when sea ice declined to provide ranges (Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020).

Along with the thriving situation of Barents Sea bears mentioned above (Aars 2018; Aars et al. 2017; Lippold et al. 2019), Chukchi Sea polar bears also are doing significantly better than they have been within the 1980s in spite of a lot diminished summer season sea ice. Those effects are documented in plenty of peer-reviewed papers at the subject (ACSWG 2018; Regehr et al. 2018; Rode and Regehr 2010; Rode et al. 2013, 2014, 2018). Ringed and bearded seals are in a similar way thriving in spite of much less summer season ice (Crawford et al. 2015).

In spite of those effects, Stirling and co-workers conclude illogically that each Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea polar endure populations are simply “most probably strong” (i.e. “OK”) reasonably than expanding. It’s biologically incredible that each populations are simply retaining their very own: the Svalbard portion of the Barents Sea inhabitants higher through 42% between 2004 and 2015. On the other hand, this used to be brushed aside as “statistically insignificant” although the in a similar way “statistically insignificant” 17% decline in Southern Hudson Bay bears in 2018 used to be deemed legitimate and represented a ‘actual’ decline – such video games don’t instill self assurance that those researchers are presenting impartial medical effects (Crockford 2019, 2020).

Stirling states within the evaluate: “…a pair [subpopulations] are doing OK, similar to Foxe Basin and Davis Directly, and one appears to be expanding (M’Clintock Channel).” As I discussed above, he fails to say the ‘expanding’ standing of Kane Basin however his point out of M’Clintock Channel way we now we all know why the file on the newest M’Clintock Channel inhabitants survey has no longer but been launched (see Crockford 2020): it clearly displays the inhabitants dimension has higher. Extra video games.

I’ve prior to now addressed intimately the issues concerned within the Southern Beaufort inhabitants estimate and the ones for Western and Southern Hudson Bay that are at odds with the image offered through ClimateFeedback. See Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020.

Mistakes within the evaluate:

1) “The worldwide polar endure inhabitants is recently estimated to be roughly 20,000 – 25,000 bears, disbursed amongst 19 subpopulations.” That is unsuitable: it’s an out-of-date estimate utilized in a paper co-authored through reviewer Derocher in 2013. The reliable world inhabitants estimate utilized by the IUCN (2015) and the IUCN Polar Undergo Specialist Staff (2018) is 22,000-31,000 (or 26,000 on moderate), see Regehr et al. 2016 and Wiig et al. 2015.
2) Reference 1 within the quotation listing: “Stirling et al. (2018)” will have to be Stirling et al. (2012)
Three) Paragraph Three of the evaluate: “However as mentioned in Hunter et al. (2015)” will have to be Hunter et al. (2010).

Some comparable posts, with references:

Now 20 years without a pattern in ice breakup dates for Western Hudson Bay polar bears [discusses the Lunn et al. 2016 paper cited in the Climate Feedback review]

Southern Beaufort polar endure ‘decline’ and diminished cub survival touted in 2008 used to be invalid, PBSG now admits

Nice polar endure crimson herring within the Southern Beaufort

[mentioned the repeated hunger occasions that resulted from thick
spring ice prerequisites distinctive to the Southern Beaufort, which at the moment are
falsely blamed on loss of summer season ice.]

International polar endure inhabitants higher than earlier concept – nearly 30,000

[discusses the polar endure subpopulation estimates that weren’t
incorporated within the 2015 IUCN Purple Record overview as a result of they’d no longer but
been printed]

Even with Inuit lives at stake, polar endure experts make unsupported declares

[discusses Ian Stirling’s oft-repeated declare that the frame situation of
polar bears in Western Hudson Bay has dropped and that cub survival
charges have “plummetted” – although information supporting those claims have no longer been printed – as I identified in my 2019 State of the Polar Undergo Record (Crockford 2020)]

Chukchi Sea polar bears quantity nearly 3000 in keeping with new survey effects replace [reports the 2016 population estimate that replaces the old ‘guess’ of 2,000 bears used in the 2015 IUCN Red List assessment]

Polar endure experts double-down on message of long run ravenous bears [discusses the claim that Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears are starving due to declining summer sea ice]

International polar endure abundance ‘very best wager’ estimate is 39,000 (26,000-58,000) [discusses polar bear numbers at 2018 and why I think they are too low, see quote below].

“In 2014, the chairman of the IUCN Polar Undergo Specialist Staff (PBSG) emailed me to mention that their world inhabitants dimension quantity ‘hasn’t ever been an estimate of overall abundance in a systematic sense, however merely a professional wager given to meet public call for.’
In my new e-book, The Polar Undergo Disaster That By no means Came about, I contend that this example will almost definitely by no means alternate, so it’s time to forestall retaining out for a scientifically correct world estimate and generate an affordable and credible ‘very best wager’. Contemporary surveys from a number of important polar endure subpopulations have given us the ideas vital to try this.

Those new numbers make it conceivable to extrapolate from ‘identified’ to ‘unknown’ subpopulations inside of so-called ‘sea ice ecoregions’ (outlined in 2007 through polar endure scientists at the United States Geological Survey, see Amstrup et al. 2007) as proven underneath, to replace previous estimates and generate new ones for never-studied spaces.”

References

Aars, J. 2018. Inhabitants adjustments in polar bears: secure, however temporarily dropping habitat. Fram Discussion board Publication 2018. Fram Centre, Tromso. Obtain pdf right here (32 mb).

Aars, J., Marques,T.A, Lone, Okay., Anderson, M., Wiig, Ø., Fløystad, I.M.B., Hagen, S.B. and Buckland, S.T. 2017. The quantity and distribution of polar bears within the western Barents Sea. Polar Analysis 36:1. 1374125. doi:10.1080/17518369.2017.1374125
AC SWG 2018. Chukchi-Alaska polar endure inhabitants demographic parameter estimation. Eric Regehr, Clinical Running Staff (SWG. Record of the Lawsuits of the 10th assembly of the Russian-American Fee on Polar Bears, 27-28 July 2018), pg. Five. Revealed 30 July 2018. US Fish and Natural world Provider. https://www.fws.gov/alaska/fisheries/mmm/polarbear/bilateral.htm pdf right here.

Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide standing of polar bears at decided on instances within the 21st century. US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf right here

Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G., Douglas, D.C. 2008. A Bayesian community modeling method to forecasting the 21st century international standing of polar bears. Pgs. 213-268 in Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, E.T. DeWeaver, C.M. Bitz, and L.B. Tremblay (eds.). Geophysical Monograph 180. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/180GM14/abstract and http://alaska.usgs.gov/science/biology/polar_bears/pubs.html

Atwood, T.C., Marcot, B.G., Douglas,D.C., Amstrup, S.C., Rode, Okay.D., Durner, G.M. and Bromaghin, J.F. 2015. Comparing and rating threats to the long-term patience of polar bears. USGS Open-Report Record 2014–1254. Pdf right here.

Crawford, J.A., Quakenbush, L.T. & Citta, J.J. 2015. A comparability of ringed and bearded seal nutrition, situation and productiveness between historic (1975–1984) and up to date (2003–2012) classes within the Alaskan Bering and Chukchi seas. Growth in Oceanography 136:133-150.

Crockford, S.J. 2017. Checking out the speculation that regimen sea ice protection of Three-Five mkm2 leads to a better than 30% decline in inhabitants dimension of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 2 March 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v3 Open get right of entry to. https://doi.org/10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v3

Crockford, S.J. 2020. State of the Polar Undergo Record 2019. International Warming Coverage Basis Record 39, London. PDF right here.

Crockford, S.J. 2019. The Polar Undergo Disaster That By no means Came about. International Warming Coverage Basis, London. To be had in paperback and e book codecs.

Crockford, S.J. and Geist, V. 2018. Conservation Fiasco. Vary Mag, Iciness 2017/2018, pg. 26-27. Pdf right here.

Lippold, A., Bourgeon, S., Aars, J., Andersen, M., Polder, A., Lyche, J.L., Bytingsvik, J., Jenssen, B.M., Derocher, A.E., Welker, J.M. and Routti, H. 2019. Temporal tendencies of chronic natural pollution in Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in terms of adjustments in feeding behavior and frame situation. Environmental Science and Technology 53(2):984-995.

Regehr, E.V., Laidre, Okay.L, Akçakaya, H.R., Amstrup, S.C., Atwood, T.C., Lunn, N.J., Obbard, M., Stern, H., Thiemann, G.W., & Wiig, Ø. 2016. Conservation standing of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in terms of projected sea-ice declines. Biology Letters 12: 20160556. http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content material/12/12/20160556

Rode, Okay. and Regehr, E.V. 2010. Polar endure analysis within the Chukchi and Bering Seas: A synopsis of 2010 box paintings. Unpublished file to the United States Fish and Natural world Provider, Division of the Inside, Anchorage. pdf right here.

Rode, Okay.D., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2013. Variation within the reaction of an Arctic best predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of 2 polar endure populations. Oral presentation through Karyn Rode, 28th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, March 26-29. Anchorage, AK.

Rode, Okay.D., Regehr, E.V., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2014. Variation within the reaction of an Arctic best predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of 2 polar endure populations. International Trade Biology 20(1):76-88. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12339/summary

Rode, Okay. D., R. R. Wilson, D. C. Douglas, V. Muhlenbruch, T.C. Atwood, E. V. Regehr, E.S. Richardson, N.W. Pilfold, A.E. Derocher, G.M Durner, I. Stirling, S.C. Amstrup, M. S. Martin, A.M. Pagano, and Okay. Simac. 2018. Spring fasting conduct in a marine apex predator supplies an index of ecosystem productiveness. International Trade Biology http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13933/complete

Wiig, Ø., Amstrup, S., Atwood, T., Laidre, Okay., Lunn, N., Obbard, M., et al. 2015. Ursus maritimus. The IUCN Purple Record of Threatened Species 2015: e.T22823A14871490. To be had from http://www.iucnredlist.org/main points/22823/zero [accessed Nov. 28, 2015]. See the complement for inhabitants figures.

From Polar Undergo Science

Posted on Would possibly 18, 2020 |

Fb has labelled a contemporary brief PragerU polar endure video as “false data” in line with a ClimateFeedback evaluate that includes statements through Andrew Derocher and Ian Stirling printed 18 Would possibly 2020.

The video, posted on Fb Five Would possibly 2020, could also be to be had right here and right here. Additionally right here at the PragerU web page.

I used to be approached the previous day through Nick Coltrain, a reporter for the Des Moines Check in and USA As of late, soliciting for a commentary concerning the accuracy of the PragerU video, which cites me as a supply for 2 in their 3 ‘inconvenient info.’

My feedback are underneath however I reminded Nick that what’s going on is a vintage struggle that occurs at all times in science: it items no evidence that I’m unsuitable or that the PragerU video is ‘false data’. Local weather Comments isn’t ‘factchecking’: it’s presenting its most well-liked facet of a disputed science factor.

Commentary despatched to Nick Coltrain:

Thank you for the chance to reply. I stand in the back of the accuracy of the video however want they’d cited my medical paper, my totally referenced new e-book, The Polar Undergo Disaster That By no means Came about, and/or The State of the Polar Undergo Record 2019, additionally totally referenced. [links provided to Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020]

I will be able to publish a complete reaction on my weblog however want to indicate the next.

In regards to the problem of the adjective ‘thriving’ used within the video, within the evaluate each Derocher and Stirling referred to Barents and Chukchi Sea polar bears as doing “OK”. I contend it is a gross misrepresentation of the broadcast literature on those bears. There were plenty of papers printed on Chukchi Sea bears documenting that frame situation and copy are higher now than within the 1980s and a contemporary paper at the frame situation of feminine Barents Sea bears mentioned:

“Swiftly, frame situation of feminine polar bears from the Barents Sea has higher after 2005, despite the fact that sea ice has retreated through ∼50% for the reason that past due 1990s within the space, and the duration of the ice-free season has higher through over 20 weeks between 1979 and 2013. Those adjustments also are accompanied through iciness sea ice retreat this is particularly pronounced within the Barents Sea in comparison to different Arctic spaces” [Lippold et al. 2019:988]

Biologically talking, for the reason that premise of the belief that polar endure populations will decline with diminished summer season sea ice is that bears will likely be in deficient situation and reproducing poorly, it’s logical to think that bears with excellent frame situation and reproducing smartly belong to thriving populations, without reference to the truth that the ocean ice of their area is way diminished.

As well as, Stirling additional mentioned that “…a pair [subpopulations] are doing OK, similar to Foxe Basin and Davis Directly, and one appears to be expanding (M’Clintock Channel).” It’s abnormal that Stirling fails to say Kane Basin, proven at the standing map supplied as additionally ‘most probably expanding’ (as documented in 2016 inhabitants survey file) and but mentions M’Clintock Channel bears appear to be expanding although the result of a long-awaited inhabitants survey, now lengthy past due, have no longer but been made public.

The polar endure information are contradictory: opposite to predictions, a number of polar endure subpopulations (a minimum of 4 of them) are certainly thriving in spite of a lot diminished summer season sea ice. I’ve selected to emphasis that excellent information, whilst Stirling and Derocher select to emphasise the information that appear to suit their predictions. It is a vintage struggle that occurs at all times in science however items no evidence that I’m unsuitable or that the PragerU video is inherently ‘false’.

Regards,

Susan, 18 Would possibly 2020

In brief, it’s certainly true that ‘Polar bears are thriving even the place sea ice is diminishing.’ See additionally my 2018 opinion piece at the Nationwide Geographic ‘ravenous’ polar endure video within the Monetary Put up right here. Local weather Comments reviewed that piece with statements through Steven Amstrup and Andrew Derocher, which I countered right here, right here, and right here.

Further feedback:

The evaluate states: “There is not any medical proof that all the polar endure inhabitants has been rising, opposite to what this video claims.” In 2007 the worldwide estimate utilized by the USGS of their research supporting the checklist of polar bears as ‘threatened’ underneath the ESA used to be 24,500 (Amstrup et al. 2007) and the reliable IUCN estimate in 2015 (with out the addition of a number of subpopulation estimates finished since then) used to be 26,000 (22,000-31,000)(Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015).

Do the mathematics: 24,500 bears in 2007 vs. 26,000 bears in 2015 is a rise of one,500 bears and point out that general inhabitants numbers have certainly grown through a small quantity. More moderen survey effects upload additional to that overall. I’ve identified this may occasionally smartly no longer be statistically vital building up however it’s under no circumstances the decline that used to be predicted to happen when sea ice declined to provide ranges (Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020).

Along with the thriving situation of Barents Sea bears mentioned above (Aars 2018; Aars et al. 2017; Lippold et al. 2019), Chukchi Sea polar bears also are doing significantly better than they have been within the 1980s in spite of a lot diminished summer season sea ice. Those effects are documented in plenty of peer-reviewed papers at the subject (ACSWG 2018; Regehr et al. 2018; Rode and Regehr 2010; Rode et al. 2013, 2014, 2018). Ringed and bearded seals are in a similar way thriving in spite of much less summer season ice (Crawford et al. 2015).

In spite of those effects, Stirling and co-workers conclude illogically that each Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea polar endure populations are simply “most probably strong” (i.e. “OK”) reasonably than expanding. It’s biologically incredible that each populations are simply retaining their very own: the Svalbard portion of the Barents Sea inhabitants higher through 42% between 2004 and 2015. On the other hand, this used to be brushed aside as “statistically insignificant” although the in a similar way “statistically insignificant” 17% decline in Southern Hudson Bay bears in 2018 used to be deemed legitimate and represented a ‘actual’ decline – such video games don’t instill self assurance that those researchers are presenting impartial medical effects (Crockford 2019, 2020).

Stirling states within the evaluate: “…a pair [subpopulations] are doing OK, similar to Foxe Basin and Davis Directly, and one appears to be expanding (M’Clintock Channel).” As I discussed above, he fails to say the ‘expanding’ standing of Kane Basin however his point out of M’Clintock Channel way we now we all know why the file on the newest M’Clintock Channel inhabitants survey has no longer but been launched (see Crockford 2020): it clearly displays the inhabitants dimension has higher. Extra video games.

I’ve prior to now addressed intimately the issues concerned within the Southern Beaufort inhabitants estimate and the ones for Western and Southern Hudson Bay that are at odds with the image offered through ClimateFeedback. See Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020.

Mistakes within the evaluate:

1) “The worldwide polar endure inhabitants is recently estimated to be roughly 20,000 – 25,000 bears, disbursed amongst 19 subpopulations.” That is unsuitable: it’s an out-of-date estimate utilized in a paper co-authored through reviewer Derocher in 2013. The reliable world inhabitants estimate utilized by the IUCN (2015) and the IUCN Polar Undergo Specialist Staff (2018) is 22,000-31,000 (or 26,000 on moderate), see Regehr et al. 2016 and Wiig et al. 2015.
2) Reference 1 within the quotation listing: “Stirling et al. (2018)” will have to be Stirling et al. (2012)
Three) Paragraph Three of the evaluate: “However as mentioned in Hunter et al. (2015)” will have to be Hunter et al. (2010).

Some comparable posts, with references:

Now 20 years without a pattern in ice breakup dates for Western Hudson Bay polar bears [discusses the Lunn et al. 2016 paper cited in the Climate Feedback review]

Southern Beaufort polar endure ‘decline’ and diminished cub survival touted in 2008 used to be invalid, PBSG now admits

Nice polar endure crimson herring within the Southern Beaufort

[mentioned the repeated hunger occasions that resulted from thick
spring ice prerequisites distinctive to the Southern Beaufort, which at the moment are
falsely blamed on loss of summer season ice.]

International polar endure inhabitants higher than earlier concept – nearly 30,000

[discusses the polar endure subpopulation estimates that weren’t
incorporated within the 2015 IUCN Purple Record overview as a result of they’d no longer but
been printed]

Even with Inuit lives at stake, polar endure experts make unsupported declares

[discusses Ian Stirling’s oft-repeated declare that the frame situation of
polar bears in Western Hudson Bay has dropped and that cub survival
charges have “plummetted” – although information supporting those claims have no longer been printed – as I identified in my 2019 State of the Polar Undergo Record (Crockford 2020)]

Chukchi Sea polar bears quantity nearly 3000 in keeping with new survey effects replace [reports the 2016 population estimate that replaces the old ‘guess’ of 2,000 bears used in the 2015 IUCN Red List assessment]

Polar endure experts double-down on message of long run ravenous bears [discusses the claim that Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears are starving due to declining summer sea ice]

International polar endure abundance ‘very best wager’ estimate is 39,000 (26,000-58,000) [discusses polar bear numbers at 2018 and why I think they are too low, see quote below].

“In 2014, the chairman of the IUCN Polar Undergo Specialist Staff (PBSG) emailed me to mention that their world inhabitants dimension quantity ‘hasn’t ever been an estimate of overall abundance in a systematic sense, however merely a professional wager given to meet public call for.’
In my new e-book, The Polar Undergo Disaster That By no means Came about, I contend that this example will almost definitely by no means alternate, so it’s time to forestall retaining out for a scientifically correct world estimate and generate an affordable and credible ‘very best wager’. Contemporary surveys from a number of important polar endure subpopulations have given us the ideas vital to try this.

Those new numbers make it conceivable to extrapolate from ‘identified’ to ‘unknown’ subpopulations inside of so-called ‘sea ice ecoregions’ (outlined in 2007 through polar endure scientists at the United States Geological Survey, see Amstrup et al. 2007) as proven underneath, to replace previous estimates and generate new ones for never-studied spaces.”

References

Aars, J. 2018. Inhabitants adjustments in polar bears: secure, however temporarily dropping habitat. Fram Discussion board Publication 2018. Fram Centre, Tromso. Obtain pdf right here (32 mb).

Aars, J., Marques,T.A, Lone, Okay., Anderson, M., Wiig, Ø., Fløystad, I.M.B., Hagen, S.B. and Buckland, S.T. 2017. The quantity and distribution of polar bears within the western Barents Sea. Polar Analysis 36:1. 1374125. doi:10.1080/17518369.2017.1374125
AC SWG 2018. Chukchi-Alaska polar endure inhabitants demographic parameter estimation. Eric Regehr, Clinical Running Staff (SWG. Record of the Lawsuits of the 10th assembly of the Russian-American Fee on Polar Bears, 27-28 July 2018), pg. Five. Revealed 30 July 2018. US Fish and Natural world Provider. https://www.fws.gov/alaska/fisheries/mmm/polarbear/bilateral.htm pdf right here.

Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide standing of polar bears at decided on instances within the 21st century. US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf right here

Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G., Douglas, D.C. 2008. A Bayesian community modeling method to forecasting the 21st century international standing of polar bears. Pgs. 213-268 in Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, E.T. DeWeaver, C.M. Bitz, and L.B. Tremblay (eds.). Geophysical Monograph 180. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/180GM14/abstract and http://alaska.usgs.gov/science/biology/polar_bears/pubs.html

Atwood, T.C., Marcot, B.G., Douglas,D.C., Amstrup, S.C., Rode, Okay.D., Durner, G.M. and Bromaghin, J.F. 2015. Comparing and rating threats to the long-term patience of polar bears. USGS Open-Report Record 2014–1254. Pdf right here.

Crawford, J.A., Quakenbush, L.T. & Citta, J.J. 2015. A comparability of ringed and bearded seal nutrition, situation and productiveness between historic (1975–1984) and up to date (2003–2012) classes within the Alaskan Bering and Chukchi seas. Growth in Oceanography 136:133-150.

Crockford, S.J. 2017. Checking out the speculation that regimen sea ice protection of Three-Five mkm2 leads to a better than 30% decline in inhabitants dimension of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 2 March 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v3 Open get right of entry to. https://doi.org/10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v3

Crockford, S.J. 2020. State of the Polar Undergo Record 2019. International Warming Coverage Basis Record 39, London. PDF right here.

Crockford, S.J. 2019. The Polar Undergo Disaster That By no means Came about. International Warming Coverage Basis, London. To be had in paperback and e book codecs.

Crockford, S.J. and Geist, V. 2018. Conservation Fiasco. Vary Mag, Iciness 2017/2018, pg. 26-27. Pdf right here.

Lippold, A., Bourgeon, S., Aars, J., Andersen, M., Polder, A., Lyche, J.L., Bytingsvik, J., Jenssen, B.M., Derocher, A.E., Welker, J.M. and Routti, H. 2019. Temporal tendencies of chronic natural pollution in Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in terms of adjustments in feeding behavior and frame situation. Environmental Science and Technology 53(2):984-995.

Regehr, E.V., Laidre, Okay.L, Akçakaya, H.R., Amstrup, S.C., Atwood, T.C., Lunn, N.J., Obbard, M., Stern, H., Thiemann, G.W., & Wiig, Ø. 2016. Conservation standing of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in terms of projected sea-ice declines. Biology Letters 12: 20160556. http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content material/12/12/20160556

Rode, Okay. and Regehr, E.V. 2010. Polar endure analysis within the Chukchi and Bering Seas: A synopsis of 2010 box paintings. Unpublished file to the United States Fish and Natural world Provider, Division of the Inside, Anchorage. pdf right here.

Rode, Okay.D., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2013. Variation within the reaction of an Arctic best predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of 2 polar endure populations. Oral presentation through Karyn Rode, 28th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, March 26-29. Anchorage, AK.

Rode, Okay.D., Regehr, E.V., Douglas, D., Durner, G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., and Budge, S. 2014. Variation within the reaction of an Arctic best predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of 2 polar endure populations. International Trade Biology 20(1):76-88. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12339/summary

Rode, Okay. D., R. R. Wilson, D. C. Douglas, V. Muhlenbruch, T.C. Atwood, E. V. Regehr, E.S. Richardson, N.W. Pilfold, A.E. Derocher, G.M Durner, I. Stirling, S.C. Amstrup, M. S. Martin, A.M. Pagano, and Okay. Simac. 2018. Spring fasting conduct in a marine apex predator supplies an index of ecosystem productiveness. International Trade Biology http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13933/complete

Wiig, Ø., Amstrup, S., Atwood, T., Laidre, Okay., Lunn, N., Obbard, M., et al. 2015. Ursus maritimus. The IUCN Purple Record of Threatened Species 2015: e.T22823A14871490. To be had from http://www.iucnredlist.org/main points/22823/zero [accessed Nov. 28, 2015]. See the complement for inhabitants figures.

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