Home / Weather / Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #412

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #412

Quote of the Week: “Aqueous vapor [water vapor] is a blanket, more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer-night the aqueous vapor from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost.” – John Tyndall (“Heat: A Mode of Motion”, 1861) [H/t William Happer]

Number of the Week: Daily change of 100⁰C (or daily change of 180⁰F)

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Greenhouse Warming: Last week, TWTW focused on a new book by Peter Webster, Dynamic of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans, reviewed by his spouse Judith Curry, formerly the chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. There are many issues that we do not understand about the tropics, which render climate modeling used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highly questionable and the US climate modeling efforts highly doubtful.

Writing in No Tricks Zone, Kenneth Richard brings up a new paper by Richard Lindzen, “An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions.” A retired professor at MIT, Lindzen was last year’s recipient of the Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award for exceptional courage in the quest for knowledge. The current work is an example of his courage. [Unfortunately, the paper, published in The European Physical Journal Plus, is paywalled, and TWTW relies on what was reproduced in No Tricks Zone.] Lindzen begins:

“Although it is often noted that greenhouse warming has long been found in the climate literature, it turns out that this was not generally considered a major cause of climate change until the 1980s.

“Many factors, including fluctuations of average cloud area and height, snow cover, ocean circulations, etc. commonly cause changes to the radiative budget comparable to that of doubling of CO2. For example, the net global mean cloud radiative effect is of the order of – 20 W/m squared [minus 20 watts per meter squared] (cooling effect). A 4 W/m squared forcing from a doubling of CO2, therefore, corresponds to only a 20% change in the net cloud effect.

“The ‘consensus’ assessment of this system is today the following:

“In this complex multifactor system, the climate (which, itself, consists in many variables – especially the temperature deference between the equator and the poles) is described by just one variable, the global averaged temperature change, and is controlled by the 1—2% perturbation in the energy budget due to a single variable (any single variable) among many variables of comparable importance. We go further and designate CO2 as the sole control Although we are not sure of the budget for this variable, we know precisely what policies to implement in order to control it.

“How did such a naïve seeming picture come to be accepted, not just by the proponents of the issue, but also by most skeptics?”

Lindzen gives his views on how this came about and discusses problems therein. In the blog Richard highlights certain points presented in the full paper:

“1. Doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 280 ppm to 560 ppm results in just a 1-2% perturbation to the Earth’s 240 W/m² energy budget. This doubled-CO2 effect has less than 1/5th of the impact that the net cloud effect has. And yet we are asked to accept the ‘implausible’ claim that change in one variable, CO2, is predominantly responsible for altering global temperatures.

“2. A causal role for CO2 ‘cannot be claimed’ for the glacial-to-interglacial warming events because CO2 variations follow rather than lead the temperature changes in paleoclimate records and the 100 ppm total increase over thousands of years produce ‘about 1 W/m²’ of total radiative impact.

“3. Climate science didn’t used to be alarmist prior to the late 1980s. Scientists were instead sufficiently skeptical about claims of climatically-induced planetary doom. That changed during the years 1988-1994, when climate research centered on CO2 and global warming received a 15-fold increase in funding in the US alone. Suddenly there was a great financial incentive to propel alarming global warming scenarios.

“4. Concepts like ‘polar amplification’ are ‘imaginary’.

“‘The change in equator-to-pole temperature difference was attributed to some imaginary ‘polar amplification,’ whereby the equator-pole temperature automatically followed the mean temperature. Although the analogy is hardly exact, this is not so different from assuming that flow in a pipe depends on the mean pressure rather than the pressure gradient.’”

In short, although considered complex, the climate models oversimplify critical parts of the climate system, making the models unreliable. Lindzen’s findings are similar to those of Webster in last week’s TWTW: Critical parts of the climate system are over-simplified, and a minor part (CO2) is over-emphasized. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy

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The Shape of Water: In an open access paper in The European Physical Journal Plus, Geoffrey Vallis of the University of Exeter, brings up the problems of modeling water vapor and methane which have phase changes. According to his web site, the interests of Vallis “are in climate dynamics and planetary atmospheres, and my work varies between basic research in geophysical fluid dynamics and more applied modeling of various aspects of the oceans, atmospheres, or climate, although distinguishing between these subfields can sometimes be quite arbitrary.” The abstract of the article “The Trouble with Water: Condensation, Circulation and Climate” states:

“This article discusses at a basic level a few of the problems that arise in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate that are associated with the presence of moisture in the air, its condensation and release of latent heat. Our main focus is Earth’s atmosphere, but we also discuss how these problems might manifest themselves on other planetary bodies, with particular attention to Titan where methane takes on the role of water. Geophysical fluid dynamics has traditionally been concerned with understanding the very basic problems that lie at the foundation of dynamical meteorology and oceanography. Conventionally, and a little ironically, the subject mainly considers ‘dry’ fluids, meaning it does not concern itself overly much with phase changes. The subject is often regarded as dry in another way because it does not consider problems perceived as relevant to the real world, such as clouds or rainfall, which have typically been the province of complicated numerical models. Those models often rely on parameterizations of unresolved processes, parameterizations that may work very well but that often have a semiempirical basis. The consequent dichotomy between the foundations and the applications prevents progress being made that has both a secure basis in scientific understanding and a relevance to the Earth’s climate, especially where moisture is concerned. The dichotomy also inhibits progress in understanding the climate of other planets, where observations are insufficient to tune the parameterizations that weather and climate models for Earth rely upon, and a more fundamental approach is called for. Here, we discuss four diverse examples of the problems with moisture: the determination of relative humidity and cloudiness; the transport of water vapor and its possible change under global warming; the moist shallow water equations and the Madden–Julian Oscillation; and the hydrology cycle on other planetary bodies.”

The phase changes of water require or give off considerable heat. Under a standard atmosphere, the melting of ice, alone, requires 79.7 calories per gram (cal/gm) or 334 kJ/kg, which does not include heating of the ice to bring it to melting temperature. The vaporization of water to water vapor (steam) requires 539 cal/gm or 2260 kJ/kg, which does not include the heat required to bring water to a boiling (vaporizing) point.

Except in a laboratory, there is no such thing as dry air on earth, much less “dry fluids”, yet climate modelers assume their existence, then try to guess at what the influence of physical air and water, including phase changes, would be on their models after they created the models using imaginary air. This is a major reason why climate models must be tested against physical evidence, not against similar models. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.

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Heat Exposure: The JAMA network, formerly known as the Journal of the American Medical Association produced a “peer reviewed”, highly questionable meta-analysis claiming that heat and pollution present serious health risks particularly to black expectant mothers. It appears to be another meta-study lacking rigor. Have issues such as smoking, alcohol intake, drug use, pre-natal care, body weight and BMI of the mother been eliminated? Steve Milloy writes:

“While it is true that African-Americans as a group have suffered at a proportionately greater rate from COVID-19 – as well as many other illnesses – than other population groups, this has nothing to do with the environment so much as it does with poverty, education and the increased rate of co-morbidities that go along with those two problems.”

The heat issue prompts one to ask how humanity survived in the tropics, where it evolved? Also, the combined pollution and heat issue prompts the question, how did African-Americans survive in the American South, without air conditioning, and the roads were unpaved,

 dusty, until the 1960s and 70s? See links under Health, Energy, and Climate and Other News that May Be of Interest.

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Tree Rings, Again? As discussed by Paul Homewood, a review of a new book, Tree Story: the History of the World Written in Rings brings up how tree rings may provide answers to questions about history.

“Unlike carbon14-dating, which can only offer a temporal range, tree rings pinpoint the conditions for a precise year, even the beginning or end of the season. Cross-referencing with known events has helped add a missing climate element to history. The disappearance, for instance, of the pioneering English colony at Roanoke in North Carolina had long baffled historians; after three years, in 1590, a relief ship arrived to find everyone gone. Tree-ring analysis has confirmed not only the intervening years as ones of drought but as the most extreme dry period on the eastern seaboard in the last eight centuries.

“Dendrochronology has also helped explain such curiosities as a dip in Caribbean piracy in the 17th century (a spate of hurricanes), riots in Ptolemaic Egypt (rain failure), the Ottoman crisis of the early 17th century and the rise and fall of the Mayan, Mongolian and Uyghur empires. When, a few years ago, Stradivari’s famous Messiah violin was deemed a copy, it was analysis of the rings in its wood that confirmed its authenticity.”

Unfortunately, the reviewer for the UK Spectator falls into the Mann trap, the hockey-stick. As Homewood writes:

“Somehow what starts as a perfectly sensible review morphs into Michael Mann and his discredited hockey stick!

“But, as the review itself admits, tree rings tell you more about rainfall than temperature, Indeed, in a much better review in Newsweek, we read how the book reveals in detail the effect that a long period of drought had on the declining Roman Empire in the 4thC.

“In fact, Mann’s Hockey Stick was hopelessly flawed in many ways. (I would recommend Andrew Montford’s book, ‘The Hockey Stick Illusion’, for anyone interested.

“For a start, the Hockey Stick was based on shonky [questionable] statistics, which were guaranteed to produce a hockey stick curve regardless of the data fed into it. This was because of the way Mann used Principal Component analysis. In simple terms, Mann’s statistics blew out of all proportion any data which showed a hockey stick effect and ignored all other data.

“Secondly, as far as tree rings were concerned, it was heavily dependent on bristlecone pines. It has long been known that the marked increase in bristlecone growth in the 19th and 20thC is due to CO2 fertilization, not temperature. When bristlecones are taken out of Mann’s analysis. the hockey stick disappears.

“Thirdly, when tree ring and other proxy data diverged from rising temperature data in the late 20thC, Mann ignored the proxies and spliced the temperature data onto his graph.

“There are also a whole host of other major flaws in the Hockey Stick, not related to tree rings. Homewood links to works by McKitrick and McIntyre. See links under Oh Mann!

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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD

THE JACKSON

Since 2012, SEPP conducted an annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

  • The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
  • The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
  • The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
  • The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.

The eight past recipients, Lisa Jackson (12), Barrack Obama (13), John Kerry (14), Ernest Moniz (15), Michael Mann (16), Christiana Figueres (17), Jerry Brown (18), and AOC (19) are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected] Thank you.

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Number of the Week: Daily change of 100⁰C (or daily change of 180⁰F) – the swing in daily temperatures near the equator of Mars.

Largely ignored in the global warming controversy is how important greenhouse gases are in keeping the land masses of Earth inhabitable. Yet in 1861, greenhouse gas pioneer John Tyndall understood the critical role the major greenhouse gas, water vapor, plays in keeping land masses warm enough for life on Earth. (See Quote of the Week) This knowledge has been lost in the noise of global warming fears since the 1980s.

Thus, it is useful to recognize the stability greenhouse gases give to Earth by comparing the temperature swings near the equator of the Earth with a nearby planet that has limited greenhouse gases, Mars. Mars has a daily rotation of 24.6 hours, similar to that of Earth. The primary gas in the atmosphere is carbon dioxide, 95% and it has very little water vapor, while the atmosphere of Earth is 0.04% carbon dioxide with about 1.5% water vapor (ranging from about 1% to 4%)

Since 1997, there have been 4 US rovers on Mars. The first one lasted a few months, the second one landed in January 2004 and operated until March 2010, the third one also landed in January 2004, and operated until June 2018, the fourth one landed in August 2012 and continues to operate.

Based on measurements, near the equator of Mars, the daily temperature fluctuation is about 100⁰C (180⁰F), from a high of about 21⁰C (70⁰F) at midday to minus 79⁰C (minus 110⁰F) the same night. [During polar winters, not on the equator, surface frost can form at night, giving evidence of limited water vapor.]

Using Wikipedia, TWTW reviewed the reported temperatures of locations, near the equator, near the centers of land masses of Africa and South America. The results are:

Kisangani, Democratic Republic of Congo, from BBC Weather Centre (No time period given)

0 degrees, 31 minutes North

Elevation 447 m (1467 ft)

Population 1,602,144 (2015)

March average high 31⁰C (88⁰F) average low 21⁰C (70⁰F) Mean monthly hours Sunshine: 187

June – average high 30⁰C (84⁰F) average low 21⁰C (70⁰F) Mean monthly hours Sunshine: 150

September– average high 29⁰C (84⁰F) average low 20⁰C (68⁰F) Sunshine hours: 186

December– average high 30⁰C (84⁰F) average low 20⁰C (68⁰F) Sunshine hours: 155

Heaviest rain period September to November with October 218mm (8.6 Inches)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kisangani

and

Boa Vista, Brazil from Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (1981-2010 normal)

2 degrees 49 min N

Population 375,374

Elevation 90 m (300 ft)

March average high 34.2⁰C (93.6) average low 24.3⁰C (75.7⁰F) Sunshine hours: 142

June – Average high 31.2⁰C (88.2) average low 23.1⁰C (73.6⁰F) Sunshine hours: 93.5

September– average high 34.2⁰C (93.6) average low 24.2⁰C (75.6⁰F) Sunshine hours: 200.7

December– average high 33.8⁰C (92.8) average low 24.3⁰C (75.7⁰F) Sunshine hours: 173.5

Heavy rain in the May to August, 321.3 mm (12.65 in) in June

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boa_Vista,_Roraima

CONCLUSION: Compared to Mars, with little atmosphere and the primary gas being CO2, the stability (lack of variation) of daily temperatures on Earth is remarkable. As Tyndall implied, without the greenhouse effect, the nighttime temperatures on Earth’s land masses would be well below freezing, preventing growth of vegetation. Yet the UN IPCC and others claim a small increase in the greenhouse effect, occurring at night, will be dangerous to human health?

See links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_rover

https://mars.nasa.gov/mer/spotlight/20070612.html

https://www.space.com/16907-what-is-the-temperature-of-mars.html#:~:text=A%20summer%20day%20on%20Mars,F%20(minus%2073%20C).

Censorship

Twitter Censorship Update

By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 17, 2020

https://realclimatescience.com/2020/06/twitter-censorship-update-2/

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy

MIT’s Dr. Lindzen Pokes Fun At The ‘Naïve’, Well-Funded ‘Scientific Reasoning’ That 1 Factor – CO2 – Controls Climate

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 15, 2020

Link to paper: An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions

By Richard S. Lindzen, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 3, 2020

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00471-z

Climate Statistics 101: see the Slide Show AOC Tried, and Failed, to Censor

Video, By Caleb Rossiter, CO2 Coalition, Via WUWT, June 18, 2020

Climate Matters: A Climate of Fear about Climate Conversations (w/Michelle Stirling)

45 minute video, June 18, 2020

Seeking if the science is settled.

[SEPP Comment: Interrupted by ads. Ms. Stirling discusses Risky Business built on the most extreme scenario by the IPCC.]

Defending the Orthodoxy

World has six months to avert climate crisis, says energy expert

International Energy Agency chief warns of need to prevent post-lockdown surge in emissions

By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, June 18, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/18/world-has-six-months-to-avert-climate-crisis-says-energy-expert

Link to report: Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future for all.

By Staff, EIA, 2020

https://www.iea.org/

“In a report published on Thursday, the IEA – the world’s gold standard for energy analysis – set out the first global blueprint for a green recovery, focusing on reforms to energy generation and consumption. Wind and solar power should be a top focus, the report advised, alongside energy efficiency improvements to buildings and industries, and the modernisation of electricity grids.”

[SEPP Comment: The “world’s gold standard for energy analysis” may be selling fool’s gold.]

UN: Covid-19, Climate Change and Racial Justice are all Linked

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 15, 2020

Covid-19 pandemic is ‘fire drill’ for effects of climate crisis, says UN official

Lise Kingo says social equality issues must be part of sustainable development agenda

By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/15/covid-19-pandemic-is-fire-drill-for-effects-of-climate-crisis-says-un-official

Link to UN Global Compact Leaders Summit, June 15 & 16

https://www.unglobalcompact.org/

A War Against Climate Science, Waged by Washington’s Rank and File

By Lisa Friedman, NYT, June 15, 2020

“A case in point: When John Crusius, a research chemist at the United States Geological Survey, published an academic paper on natural solutions to climate change in April, his government affiliation never appeared on it. It couldn’t.”

[SEPP Comment: Insisting the place of employment of the author not appear on a paper is equivalent to censoring it? Perhaps there has been too much non-science from NASA-GISS and NOAA contradicted by physical evidence.]

Restrictions on science not limited to Trump administration’s highest ranks: report

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, June 15, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/502766-restrictions-on-science-not-limited-to-trump-administrations

See link immediately above. [SEPP Comment: Is each complaining employee saying his / hers work is pure science? Far too much EPA work is political science, not related to physical evidence.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

The Climate Campaign Is Less And Less About The Climate

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 18, 2020

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-6-18-biyb4kqu2wfj71beidexgg8exbk437

[SEPP Comment: Does a US District Judge in Montana have jurisdiction in Virginia?]

The Green Civil War

By Joel Kotkin, Real Clear Energy, June 18, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/06/18/the_green_civil_war_496728.html

[SEPP Comment: Partly reviewing Michael Shellenberger’s new book, “Apocalypse Never.”

Congrats! US, Sweden, Australia have more climate “deniers” than anywhere

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 17, 2020

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/06/congrats-us-sweden-australia-have-more-climate-deniers-than-anywhere/

Wealth: It is a difficult concept

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020

“Politicians being famously good at saying one thing, doing another and thinking a third, the EU response to the wealth-destroying impact of climate policies has been to fudge, for instance exempting the aviation industry from tough rules in the hopes of reviving tourism.”

Deep Learning’s Climate Change Problem

By Rob Toews, Forbes, June 17, 2020 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robtoews/2020/06/17/deep-learnings-climate-change-problem/#55d9b2256b43

“The bottom line: AI has a meaningful carbon footprint today, and if industry trends continue it will soon become much worse. Unless we are willing to reassess and reform today’s AI research agenda, the field of artificial intelligence could become an antagonist in the fight against climate change in the years ahead.”

[SEPP Comment: Unreliable power is of no help. With a power outage, what is being processed disappears.]

After Paris!

Despite pandemic China increases coal production, has 5,000 coal mines, and a glut of new plants

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 19, 2020

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/06/despite-pandemic-china-increases-coal-production-has-5000-coal-mines-and-a-glut-of-new-plants/

China’s New Coal Push As Relations With West Sour

By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, June 16, 2020

https://www.thegwpf.com/chinas-new-coal-push-as-relations-with-west-sour/

India Unleashing Coal: PM Modi Announces New Coal Boom, Privatisation Of Coal Mines

By Staff, IANS News Service, Via GWPF, June 18, 2020

https://www.thegwpf.com/india-unleashing-coal-pm-modi-announces-new-coal-boom-privatisation-of-coal-mines/

Change in US Administrations

Toward Serious Reform of Benefit/Cost Analysis Under the Clean Air Act

By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Markets, June 17, 2020

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/06/17/toward_serious_reform_of_benefitcost_analysis_under_the_clean_air_act_496436.html

Trump administration sued over marine monument rollback

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 17, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/503142-trump-administration-sued-over-marine-monument-rollback

“President Trump issued a proclamation this month that would reopen the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument, 130 miles off the coast of Massachusetts, for commercial fishing.”

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Disclosure of climate-related financial risks not enough to drive action

News Release, by Griffith University, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-disclosure-climate-related-financial-action.html

Link to paper: Climate-related financial disclosures in the public sector

By Edwards, Yapp, Mackay & Mackey, Nature Climate Change, May 25, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0785-1

Seeking a Common Ground

Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part I: Determining past climates

By Roland Hirsch, Climate Etc. June 16, 2020

https://judithcurry.com/2020/06/16/mass-spectrometry-and-climate-science-part-i-determining-past-climates/

Some Random Quantum Thoughts

Guest post by Rud Istvan, WUWT, June 19, 2020

The Trouble with Water: Condensation, Circulation and Climate

By Geoffrey K. Vallis, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 8, 2020

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00493-7

Science, Policy, and Evidence

Sky News: Aussie Royal Commission to Investigate how Climate Activists “Hijacked” Forestry Management

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 19, 2020

[SEPP Comment: Highlights the difference between studying the physical world as compared with studying the modeled world!]

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

Long-term Carbon Accumulation Rates of Two Alaska Peatlands

Taylor, L.S., Swindles, G.T., Morris, P.J., Galka, M. and Green, S.M. 2019. Evidence for ecosystem state shifts in Alaskan continuous permafrost peatlands in response to recent warming. Quaternary Science Reviews 207: 134-144. June 19, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/jun/a9.php

“The greatly enhanced sequestration of carbon by the peatlands in modern times was attributed by the authors to the recent warming observed since the end of the Little Ice Age, leading them to conclude ‘our work demonstrates that some Arctic peatlands may become more productive with future regional warming, subsequently increasing their ability to sequester carbon,’ adding that ‘as the Arctic continues to warm, peatlands in the continuous permafrost zone may become an increasingly important carbon sink.’ And this latter conclusion is a far cry from the model projections cited by the authors of the Arctic becoming a net carbon source by the mid-2020s!”

A 423-year Moisture Reconstruction for San Luis Potosi, Mexico

Villanueva-Díaz, J., Stahle, D.W., Therrell, M.D., Beramendi-Orosco, L., Estrada-Ávalos, J., Martínez-Sifuentes, A.R., Astudillo-Sánchez, C.C., Cervantes-Martínez, R. and Cerano-Paredes, J. 2020. The climatic response of baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum Ten.) in San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Trees 34: 623-635. June 17, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/jun/a8.php

“The observed cyclic nature of the reconstruction, coupled with what appears to be an absence of any trend in the data, suggests that rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 have had no measurable impact on droughts or pluvials in the region of San Luis Potosi over the past 423 years. And that suggests no vindication for the models’ projections on moisture. Rather, it points toward their invalidation in this regard!”

No Response of a Toxic Algae to Ocean Acidification and Warming

Li, P.F., Yang, G.P., Liu, C.Y. 2020. Combined effects of elevated temperature and pCO2 on the production of DMSP and DMS in the culture of Amphidinium carterae. Journal of Applied Phycology doi.org/10.1007/s10811-020-02058-8. June 15, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/jun/a7.php

“The above findings represent good news given the toxic nature of this species and its ability to cause red tides. But you probably won’t find any acidification alarmists publicizing or rejoicing at it!”

Model Issues

We caught bacteria from the most pristine air on earth to help solve a climate modeling mystery

By Kathryn Moore, Jun Uetake and Thomas Hill, The Conversation, Via Phys.org. June 19, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-caught-bacteria-pristine-air-earth.html

“But due to how remote the Southern Ocean is, there have been very few actual studies of the clouds there. Because of this lack of data, computer models that simulate present and future climates overpredict how much sunlight reaches the ocean surface compared to what satellites actually observe. The main reason for this inaccuracy is due to how the models simulate clouds, but nobody knew exactly why the clouds were off. For the models to run correctly, researchers needed to understand how the clouds were being formed.”

Model Failures: Inflated Pandemic Estimates Weaken Climate Forecasts

By Adam Creighton, The Australian, Via GWPF, June 17, 2020

https://www.thegwpf.com/model-failures-inflated-pandemic-estimates-weaken-climate-forecasts/

“It’s remarkable we put so much faith in expert models, given their history of failure.”

Video: How simple math can help predict the melting of sea ice

By Charles Rotter, The Conversation, Via WUWT, June 16, 2020

Measurement Issues — Surface

Beware of Crazy Snowpack Percentages!

By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, June 18, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/beware-of-crazy-snow-totals-percentages.html

This Date In 1917 – 128 Degrees At Ojai, California

By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 16, 2020

https://realclimatescience.com/2020/06/this-date-in-1917-128-degrees-at-ojai-california/

1919 or 2019? Kingston Edition

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/06/17/1919-or-2019-kingston-edition/

Changing Weather

What has caused more extreme summer heat events over northeast Asia?

News Release by Chinese Academy of Sciences, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-extreme-summer-events-northeast-asia.html

Link to paper: Attribution of the record-breaking heat event over Northeast Asia in summer 2018: the role of circulation

By Ren, Zhou, and Zhang, Environmental Research Letters, May 12, 2020

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8032

Massive Saharan dust plume headed for the Gulf of Mexico, Florida

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 18, 2020

Are Weekends Wetter than Weekdays?

By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, June 13, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/are-weekends-wetter-than-weekdays.html

Changing Seas

Mangroves at risk of collapse if emissions not reduced by 2050, international scientists predict

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 17, 2020

Link to paper:Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise

By N. Saintilan, et al. Science, June 5, 2020

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6495/1118#:~:text=Mangroves%20under%20sea%20level%20rise&text=Their%20analysis%20suggests%20an%20upper,keep%20up%20with%20the%20change.

From the write-up: “They reviewed data on mangrove accretion 10,000 to 7000 years before present, when the rate of sea level rise was even higher than today as a result of glacial ice melt. Their analysis suggests an upper threshold of 7 millimeters per year as the maximum rate of sea level rise associated with mangrove vertical development, beyond which the ecosystem fails to keep up with the change.”

[SEPP Comment: What about the period 16,000 to 9,000 years ago, when sea level rise was far more rapid?]

What if NASA’s new ocean satellite finds sea level rise isn’t the problem it’s touted to be?

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 16, 2020

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

My polar bear podcast interview with Anthony Watts from WUWT

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 19, 2020

Quote of the Week: “Aqueous vapor [water vapor] is a blanket, more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer-night the aqueous vapor from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost.” – John Tyndall (“Heat: A Mode of Motion”, 1861) [H/t William Happer]

Number of the Week: Daily change of 100⁰C (or daily change of 180⁰F)

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Greenhouse Warming: Last week, TWTW focused on a new book by Peter Webster, Dynamic of the Tropical Atmosphere and Oceans, reviewed by his spouse Judith Curry, formerly the chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. There are many issues that we do not understand about the tropics, which render climate modeling used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highly questionable and the US climate modeling efforts highly doubtful.

Writing in No Tricks Zone, Kenneth Richard brings up a new paper by Richard Lindzen, “An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions.” A retired professor at MIT, Lindzen was last year’s recipient of the Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award for exceptional courage in the quest for knowledge. The current work is an example of his courage. [Unfortunately, the paper, published in The European Physical Journal Plus, is paywalled, and TWTW relies on what was reproduced in No Tricks Zone.] Lindzen begins:

“Although it is often noted that greenhouse warming has long been found in the climate literature, it turns out that this was not generally considered a major cause of climate change until the 1980s.

“Many factors, including fluctuations of average cloud area and height, snow cover, ocean circulations, etc. commonly cause changes to the radiative budget comparable to that of doubling of CO2. For example, the net global mean cloud radiative effect is of the order of – 20 W/m squared [minus 20 watts per meter squared] (cooling effect). A 4 W/m squared forcing from a doubling of CO2, therefore, corresponds to only a 20% change in the net cloud effect.

“The ‘consensus’ assessment of this system is today the following:

“In this complex multifactor system, the climate (which, itself, consists in many variables – especially the temperature deference between the equator and the poles) is described by just one variable, the global averaged temperature change, and is controlled by the 1—2% perturbation in the energy budget due to a single variable (any single variable) among many variables of comparable importance. We go further and designate CO2 as the sole control Although we are not sure of the budget for this variable, we know precisely what policies to implement in order to control it.

“How did such a naïve seeming picture come to be accepted, not just by the proponents of the issue, but also by most skeptics?”

Lindzen gives his views on how this came about and discusses problems therein. In the blog Richard highlights certain points presented in the full paper:

“1. Doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 280 ppm to 560 ppm results in just a 1-2% perturbation to the Earth’s 240 W/m² energy budget. This doubled-CO2 effect has less than 1/5th of the impact that the net cloud effect has. And yet we are asked to accept the ‘implausible’ claim that change in one variable, CO2, is predominantly responsible for altering global temperatures.

“2. A causal role for CO2 ‘cannot be claimed’ for the glacial-to-interglacial warming events because CO2 variations follow rather than lead the temperature changes in paleoclimate records and the 100 ppm total increase over thousands of years produce ‘about 1 W/m²’ of total radiative impact.

“3. Climate science didn’t used to be alarmist prior to the late 1980s. Scientists were instead sufficiently skeptical about claims of climatically-induced planetary doom. That changed during the years 1988-1994, when climate research centered on CO2 and global warming received a 15-fold increase in funding in the US alone. Suddenly there was a great financial incentive to propel alarming global warming scenarios.

“4. Concepts like ‘polar amplification’ are ‘imaginary’.

“‘The change in equator-to-pole temperature difference was attributed to some imaginary ‘polar amplification,’ whereby the equator-pole temperature automatically followed the mean temperature. Although the analogy is hardly exact, this is not so different from assuming that flow in a pipe depends on the mean pressure rather than the pressure gradient.’”

In short, although considered complex, the climate models oversimplify critical parts of the climate system, making the models unreliable. Lindzen’s findings are similar to those of Webster in last week’s TWTW: Critical parts of the climate system are over-simplified, and a minor part (CO2) is over-emphasized. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy

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The Shape of Water: In an open access paper in The European Physical Journal Plus, Geoffrey Vallis of the University of Exeter, brings up the problems of modeling water vapor and methane which have phase changes. According to his web site, the interests of Vallis “are in climate dynamics and planetary atmospheres, and my work varies between basic research in geophysical fluid dynamics and more applied modeling of various aspects of the oceans, atmospheres, or climate, although distinguishing between these subfields can sometimes be quite arbitrary.” The abstract of the article “The Trouble with Water: Condensation, Circulation and Climate” states:

“This article discusses at a basic level a few of the problems that arise in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate that are associated with the presence of moisture in the air, its condensation and release of latent heat. Our main focus is Earth’s atmosphere, but we also discuss how these problems might manifest themselves on other planetary bodies, with particular attention to Titan where methane takes on the role of water. Geophysical fluid dynamics has traditionally been concerned with understanding the very basic problems that lie at the foundation of dynamical meteorology and oceanography. Conventionally, and a little ironically, the subject mainly considers ‘dry’ fluids, meaning it does not concern itself overly much with phase changes. The subject is often regarded as dry in another way because it does not consider problems perceived as relevant to the real world, such as clouds or rainfall, which have typically been the province of complicated numerical models. Those models often rely on parameterizations of unresolved processes, parameterizations that may work very well but that often have a semiempirical basis. The consequent dichotomy between the foundations and the applications prevents progress being made that has both a secure basis in scientific understanding and a relevance to the Earth’s climate, especially where moisture is concerned. The dichotomy also inhibits progress in understanding the climate of other planets, where observations are insufficient to tune the parameterizations that weather and climate models for Earth rely upon, and a more fundamental approach is called for. Here, we discuss four diverse examples of the problems with moisture: the determination of relative humidity and cloudiness; the transport of water vapor and its possible change under global warming; the moist shallow water equations and the Madden–Julian Oscillation; and the hydrology cycle on other planetary bodies.”

The phase changes of water require or give off considerable heat. Under a standard atmosphere, the melting of ice, alone, requires 79.7 calories per gram (cal/gm) or 334 kJ/kg, which does not include heating of the ice to bring it to melting temperature. The vaporization of water to water vapor (steam) requires 539 cal/gm or 2260 kJ/kg, which does not include the heat required to bring water to a boiling (vaporizing) point.

Except in a laboratory, there is no such thing as dry air on earth, much less “dry fluids”, yet climate modelers assume their existence, then try to guess at what the influence of physical air and water, including phase changes, would be on their models after they created the models using imaginary air. This is a major reason why climate models must be tested against physical evidence, not against similar models. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.

********************

Heat Exposure: The JAMA network, formerly known as the Journal of the American Medical Association produced a “peer reviewed”, highly questionable meta-analysis claiming that heat and pollution present serious health risks particularly to black expectant mothers. It appears to be another meta-study lacking rigor. Have issues such as smoking, alcohol intake, drug use, pre-natal care, body weight and BMI of the mother been eliminated? Steve Milloy writes:

“While it is true that African-Americans as a group have suffered at a proportionately greater rate from COVID-19 – as well as many other illnesses – than other population groups, this has nothing to do with the environment so much as it does with poverty, education and the increased rate of co-morbidities that go along with those two problems.”

The heat issue prompts one to ask how humanity survived in the tropics, where it evolved? Also, the combined pollution and heat issue prompts the question, how did African-Americans survive in the American South, without air conditioning, and the roads were unpaved,

 dusty, until the 1960s and 70s? See links under Health, Energy, and Climate and Other News that May Be of Interest.

********************

Tree Rings, Again? As discussed by Paul Homewood, a review of a new book, Tree Story: the History of the World Written in Rings brings up how tree rings may provide answers to questions about history.

“Unlike carbon14-dating, which can only offer a temporal range, tree rings pinpoint the conditions for a precise year, even the beginning or end of the season. Cross-referencing with known events has helped add a missing climate element to history. The disappearance, for instance, of the pioneering English colony at Roanoke in North Carolina had long baffled historians; after three years, in 1590, a relief ship arrived to find everyone gone. Tree-ring analysis has confirmed not only the intervening years as ones of drought but as the most extreme dry period on the eastern seaboard in the last eight centuries.

“Dendrochronology has also helped explain such curiosities as a dip in Caribbean piracy in the 17th century (a spate of hurricanes), riots in Ptolemaic Egypt (rain failure), the Ottoman crisis of the early 17th century and the rise and fall of the Mayan, Mongolian and Uyghur empires. When, a few years ago, Stradivari’s famous Messiah violin was deemed a copy, it was analysis of the rings in its wood that confirmed its authenticity.”

Unfortunately, the reviewer for the UK Spectator falls into the Mann trap, the hockey-stick. As Homewood writes:

“Somehow what starts as a perfectly sensible review morphs into Michael Mann and his discredited hockey stick!

“But, as the review itself admits, tree rings tell you more about rainfall than temperature, Indeed, in a much better review in Newsweek, we read how the book reveals in detail the effect that a long period of drought had on the declining Roman Empire in the 4thC.

“In fact, Mann’s Hockey Stick was hopelessly flawed in many ways. (I would recommend Andrew Montford’s book, ‘The Hockey Stick Illusion’, for anyone interested.

“For a start, the Hockey Stick was based on shonky [questionable] statistics, which were guaranteed to produce a hockey stick curve regardless of the data fed into it. This was because of the way Mann used Principal Component analysis. In simple terms, Mann’s statistics blew out of all proportion any data which showed a hockey stick effect and ignored all other data.

“Secondly, as far as tree rings were concerned, it was heavily dependent on bristlecone pines. It has long been known that the marked increase in bristlecone growth in the 19th and 20thC is due to CO2 fertilization, not temperature. When bristlecones are taken out of Mann’s analysis. the hockey stick disappears.

“Thirdly, when tree ring and other proxy data diverged from rising temperature data in the late 20thC, Mann ignored the proxies and spliced the temperature data onto his graph.

“There are also a whole host of other major flaws in the Hockey Stick, not related to tree rings. Homewood links to works by McKitrick and McIntyre. See links under Oh Mann!

********************

SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD

THE JACKSON

Since 2012, SEPP conducted an annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

  • The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
  • The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
  • The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
  • The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.

The eight past recipients, Lisa Jackson (12), Barrack Obama (13), John Kerry (14), Ernest Moniz (15), Michael Mann (16), Christiana Figueres (17), Jerry Brown (18), and AOC (19) are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected] Thank you.

**********************

Number of the Week: Daily change of 100⁰C (or daily change of 180⁰F) – the swing in daily temperatures near the equator of Mars.

Largely ignored in the global warming controversy is how important greenhouse gases are in keeping the land masses of Earth inhabitable. Yet in 1861, greenhouse gas pioneer John Tyndall understood the critical role the major greenhouse gas, water vapor, plays in keeping land masses warm enough for life on Earth. (See Quote of the Week) This knowledge has been lost in the noise of global warming fears since the 1980s.

Thus, it is useful to recognize the stability greenhouse gases give to Earth by comparing the temperature swings near the equator of the Earth with a nearby planet that has limited greenhouse gases, Mars. Mars has a daily rotation of 24.6 hours, similar to that of Earth. The primary gas in the atmosphere is carbon dioxide, 95% and it has very little water vapor, while the atmosphere of Earth is 0.04% carbon dioxide with about 1.5% water vapor (ranging from about 1% to 4%)

Since 1997, there have been 4 US rovers on Mars. The first one lasted a few months, the second one landed in January 2004 and operated until March 2010, the third one also landed in January 2004, and operated until June 2018, the fourth one landed in August 2012 and continues to operate.

Based on measurements, near the equator of Mars, the daily temperature fluctuation is about 100⁰C (180⁰F), from a high of about 21⁰C (70⁰F) at midday to minus 79⁰C (minus 110⁰F) the same night. [During polar winters, not on the equator, surface frost can form at night, giving evidence of limited water vapor.]

Using Wikipedia, TWTW reviewed the reported temperatures of locations, near the equator, near the centers of land masses of Africa and South America. The results are:

Kisangani, Democratic Republic of Congo, from BBC Weather Centre (No time period given)

0 degrees, 31 minutes North

Elevation 447 m (1467 ft)

Population 1,602,144 (2015)

March average high 31⁰C (88⁰F) average low 21⁰C (70⁰F) Mean monthly hours Sunshine: 187

June – average high 30⁰C (84⁰F) average low 21⁰C (70⁰F) Mean monthly hours Sunshine: 150

September– average high 29⁰C (84⁰F) average low 20⁰C (68⁰F) Sunshine hours: 186

December– average high 30⁰C (84⁰F) average low 20⁰C (68⁰F) Sunshine hours: 155

Heaviest rain period September to November with October 218mm (8.6 Inches)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kisangani

and

Boa Vista, Brazil from Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (1981-2010 normal)

2 degrees 49 min N

Population 375,374

Elevation 90 m (300 ft)

March average high 34.2⁰C (93.6) average low 24.3⁰C (75.7⁰F) Sunshine hours: 142

June – Average high 31.2⁰C (88.2) average low 23.1⁰C (73.6⁰F) Sunshine hours: 93.5

September– average high 34.2⁰C (93.6) average low 24.2⁰C (75.6⁰F) Sunshine hours: 200.7

December– average high 33.8⁰C (92.8) average low 24.3⁰C (75.7⁰F) Sunshine hours: 173.5

Heavy rain in the May to August, 321.3 mm (12.65 in) in June

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boa_Vista,_Roraima

CONCLUSION: Compared to Mars, with little atmosphere and the primary gas being CO2, the stability (lack of variation) of daily temperatures on Earth is remarkable. As Tyndall implied, without the greenhouse effect, the nighttime temperatures on Earth’s land masses would be well below freezing, preventing growth of vegetation. Yet the UN IPCC and others claim a small increase in the greenhouse effect, occurring at night, will be dangerous to human health?

See links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_rover

https://mars.nasa.gov/mer/spotlight/20070612.html

https://www.space.com/16907-what-is-the-temperature-of-mars.html#:~:text=A%20summer%20day%20on%20Mars,F%20(minus%2073%20C).

Censorship

Twitter Censorship Update

By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 17, 2020

https://realclimatescience.com/2020/06/twitter-censorship-update-2/

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/SeaLevelRiseCCRII.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy

MIT’s Dr. Lindzen Pokes Fun At The ‘Naïve’, Well-Funded ‘Scientific Reasoning’ That 1 Factor – CO2 – Controls Climate

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 15, 2020

Link to paper: An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions

By Richard S. Lindzen, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 3, 2020

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00471-z

Climate Statistics 101: see the Slide Show AOC Tried, and Failed, to Censor

Video, By Caleb Rossiter, CO2 Coalition, Via WUWT, June 18, 2020

Climate Matters: A Climate of Fear about Climate Conversations (w/Michelle Stirling)

45 minute video, June 18, 2020

Seeking if the science is settled.

[SEPP Comment: Interrupted by ads. Ms. Stirling discusses Risky Business built on the most extreme scenario by the IPCC.]

Defending the Orthodoxy

World has six months to avert climate crisis, says energy expert

International Energy Agency chief warns of need to prevent post-lockdown surge in emissions

By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, June 18, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/18/world-has-six-months-to-avert-climate-crisis-says-energy-expert

Link to report: Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future for all.

By Staff, EIA, 2020

https://www.iea.org/

“In a report published on Thursday, the IEA – the world’s gold standard for energy analysis – set out the first global blueprint for a green recovery, focusing on reforms to energy generation and consumption. Wind and solar power should be a top focus, the report advised, alongside energy efficiency improvements to buildings and industries, and the modernisation of electricity grids.”

[SEPP Comment: The “world’s gold standard for energy analysis” may be selling fool’s gold.]

UN: Covid-19, Climate Change and Racial Justice are all Linked

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 15, 2020

Covid-19 pandemic is ‘fire drill’ for effects of climate crisis, says UN official

Lise Kingo says social equality issues must be part of sustainable development agenda

By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/15/covid-19-pandemic-is-fire-drill-for-effects-of-climate-crisis-says-un-official

Link to UN Global Compact Leaders Summit, June 15 & 16

https://www.unglobalcompact.org/

A War Against Climate Science, Waged by Washington’s Rank and File

By Lisa Friedman, NYT, June 15, 2020

“A case in point: When John Crusius, a research chemist at the United States Geological Survey, published an academic paper on natural solutions to climate change in April, his government affiliation never appeared on it. It couldn’t.”

[SEPP Comment: Insisting the place of employment of the author not appear on a paper is equivalent to censoring it? Perhaps there has been too much non-science from NASA-GISS and NOAA contradicted by physical evidence.]

Restrictions on science not limited to Trump administration’s highest ranks: report

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, June 15, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/502766-restrictions-on-science-not-limited-to-trump-administrations

See link immediately above. [SEPP Comment: Is each complaining employee saying his / hers work is pure science? Far too much EPA work is political science, not related to physical evidence.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

The Climate Campaign Is Less And Less About The Climate

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 18, 2020

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-6-18-biyb4kqu2wfj71beidexgg8exbk437

[SEPP Comment: Does a US District Judge in Montana have jurisdiction in Virginia?]

The Green Civil War

By Joel Kotkin, Real Clear Energy, June 18, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/06/18/the_green_civil_war_496728.html

[SEPP Comment: Partly reviewing Michael Shellenberger’s new book, “Apocalypse Never.”

Congrats! US, Sweden, Australia have more climate “deniers” than anywhere

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 17, 2020

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/06/congrats-us-sweden-australia-have-more-climate-deniers-than-anywhere/

Wealth: It is a difficult concept

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020

“Politicians being famously good at saying one thing, doing another and thinking a third, the EU response to the wealth-destroying impact of climate policies has been to fudge, for instance exempting the aviation industry from tough rules in the hopes of reviving tourism.”

Deep Learning’s Climate Change Problem

By Rob Toews, Forbes, June 17, 2020 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robtoews/2020/06/17/deep-learnings-climate-change-problem/#55d9b2256b43

“The bottom line: AI has a meaningful carbon footprint today, and if industry trends continue it will soon become much worse. Unless we are willing to reassess and reform today’s AI research agenda, the field of artificial intelligence could become an antagonist in the fight against climate change in the years ahead.”

[SEPP Comment: Unreliable power is of no help. With a power outage, what is being processed disappears.]

After Paris!

Despite pandemic China increases coal production, has 5,000 coal mines, and a glut of new plants

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 19, 2020

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/06/despite-pandemic-china-increases-coal-production-has-5000-coal-mines-and-a-glut-of-new-plants/

China’s New Coal Push As Relations With West Sour

By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, June 16, 2020

https://www.thegwpf.com/chinas-new-coal-push-as-relations-with-west-sour/

India Unleashing Coal: PM Modi Announces New Coal Boom, Privatisation Of Coal Mines

By Staff, IANS News Service, Via GWPF, June 18, 2020

https://www.thegwpf.com/india-unleashing-coal-pm-modi-announces-new-coal-boom-privatisation-of-coal-mines/

Change in US Administrations

Toward Serious Reform of Benefit/Cost Analysis Under the Clean Air Act

By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Markets, June 17, 2020

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/06/17/toward_serious_reform_of_benefitcost_analysis_under_the_clean_air_act_496436.html

Trump administration sued over marine monument rollback

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 17, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/503142-trump-administration-sued-over-marine-monument-rollback

“President Trump issued a proclamation this month that would reopen the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument, 130 miles off the coast of Massachusetts, for commercial fishing.”

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Disclosure of climate-related financial risks not enough to drive action

News Release, by Griffith University, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-disclosure-climate-related-financial-action.html

Link to paper: Climate-related financial disclosures in the public sector

By Edwards, Yapp, Mackay & Mackey, Nature Climate Change, May 25, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0785-1

Seeking a Common Ground

Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part I: Determining past climates

By Roland Hirsch, Climate Etc. June 16, 2020

https://judithcurry.com/2020/06/16/mass-spectrometry-and-climate-science-part-i-determining-past-climates/

Some Random Quantum Thoughts

Guest post by Rud Istvan, WUWT, June 19, 2020

The Trouble with Water: Condensation, Circulation and Climate

By Geoffrey K. Vallis, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 8, 2020

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00493-7

Science, Policy, and Evidence

Sky News: Aussie Royal Commission to Investigate how Climate Activists “Hijacked” Forestry Management

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 19, 2020

[SEPP Comment: Highlights the difference between studying the physical world as compared with studying the modeled world!]

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

Long-term Carbon Accumulation Rates of Two Alaska Peatlands

Taylor, L.S., Swindles, G.T., Morris, P.J., Galka, M. and Green, S.M. 2019. Evidence for ecosystem state shifts in Alaskan continuous permafrost peatlands in response to recent warming. Quaternary Science Reviews 207: 134-144. June 19, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/jun/a9.php

“The greatly enhanced sequestration of carbon by the peatlands in modern times was attributed by the authors to the recent warming observed since the end of the Little Ice Age, leading them to conclude ‘our work demonstrates that some Arctic peatlands may become more productive with future regional warming, subsequently increasing their ability to sequester carbon,’ adding that ‘as the Arctic continues to warm, peatlands in the continuous permafrost zone may become an increasingly important carbon sink.’ And this latter conclusion is a far cry from the model projections cited by the authors of the Arctic becoming a net carbon source by the mid-2020s!”

A 423-year Moisture Reconstruction for San Luis Potosi, Mexico

Villanueva-Díaz, J., Stahle, D.W., Therrell, M.D., Beramendi-Orosco, L., Estrada-Ávalos, J., Martínez-Sifuentes, A.R., Astudillo-Sánchez, C.C., Cervantes-Martínez, R. and Cerano-Paredes, J. 2020. The climatic response of baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum Ten.) in San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Trees 34: 623-635. June 17, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/jun/a8.php

“The observed cyclic nature of the reconstruction, coupled with what appears to be an absence of any trend in the data, suggests that rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 have had no measurable impact on droughts or pluvials in the region of San Luis Potosi over the past 423 years. And that suggests no vindication for the models’ projections on moisture. Rather, it points toward their invalidation in this regard!”

No Response of a Toxic Algae to Ocean Acidification and Warming

Li, P.F., Yang, G.P., Liu, C.Y. 2020. Combined effects of elevated temperature and pCO2 on the production of DMSP and DMS in the culture of Amphidinium carterae. Journal of Applied Phycology doi.org/10.1007/s10811-020-02058-8. June 15, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/jun/a7.php

“The above findings represent good news given the toxic nature of this species and its ability to cause red tides. But you probably won’t find any acidification alarmists publicizing or rejoicing at it!”

Model Issues

We caught bacteria from the most pristine air on earth to help solve a climate modeling mystery

By Kathryn Moore, Jun Uetake and Thomas Hill, The Conversation, Via Phys.org. June 19, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-caught-bacteria-pristine-air-earth.html

“But due to how remote the Southern Ocean is, there have been very few actual studies of the clouds there. Because of this lack of data, computer models that simulate present and future climates overpredict how much sunlight reaches the ocean surface compared to what satellites actually observe. The main reason for this inaccuracy is due to how the models simulate clouds, but nobody knew exactly why the clouds were off. For the models to run correctly, researchers needed to understand how the clouds were being formed.”

Model Failures: Inflated Pandemic Estimates Weaken Climate Forecasts

By Adam Creighton, The Australian, Via GWPF, June 17, 2020

https://www.thegwpf.com/model-failures-inflated-pandemic-estimates-weaken-climate-forecasts/

“It’s remarkable we put so much faith in expert models, given their history of failure.”

Video: How simple math can help predict the melting of sea ice

By Charles Rotter, The Conversation, Via WUWT, June 16, 2020

Measurement Issues — Surface

Beware of Crazy Snowpack Percentages!

By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, June 18, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/beware-of-crazy-snow-totals-percentages.html

This Date In 1917 – 128 Degrees At Ojai, California

By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 16, 2020

https://realclimatescience.com/2020/06/this-date-in-1917-128-degrees-at-ojai-california/

1919 or 2019? Kingston Edition

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 17, 2020

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/06/17/1919-or-2019-kingston-edition/

Changing Weather

What has caused more extreme summer heat events over northeast Asia?

News Release by Chinese Academy of Sciences, June 15, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-extreme-summer-events-northeast-asia.html

Link to paper: Attribution of the record-breaking heat event over Northeast Asia in summer 2018: the role of circulation

By Ren, Zhou, and Zhang, Environmental Research Letters, May 12, 2020

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8032

Massive Saharan dust plume headed for the Gulf of Mexico, Florida

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 18, 2020

Are Weekends Wetter than Weekdays?

By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, June 13, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/06/are-weekends-wetter-than-weekdays.html

Changing Seas

Mangroves at risk of collapse if emissions not reduced by 2050, international scientists predict

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 17, 2020

Link to paper:Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise

By N. Saintilan, et al. Science, June 5, 2020

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6495/1118#:~:text=Mangroves%20under%20sea%20level%20rise&text=Their%20analysis%20suggests%20an%20upper,keep%20up%20with%20the%20change.

From the write-up: “They reviewed data on mangrove accretion 10,000 to 7000 years before present, when the rate of sea level rise was even higher than today as a result of glacial ice melt. Their analysis suggests an upper threshold of 7 millimeters per year as the maximum rate of sea level rise associated with mangrove vertical development, beyond which the ecosystem fails to keep up with the change.”

[SEPP Comment: What about the period 16,000 to 9,000 years ago, when sea level rise was far more rapid?]

What if NASA’s new ocean satellite finds sea level rise isn’t the problem it’s touted to be?

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 16, 2020

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

My polar bear podcast interview with Anthony Watts from WUWT

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 19, 2020

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